The many barriers to achieving Paris goals

Climate change report

The nationally determined contributions (NDCs) pledged by countries to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) assign importance to mitigation in the agriculture and forestry sector to realise the Paris Climate goals of limiting global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C above pre-industrial levels. In its climate action plan communicated to the UNFCCC, India too places emphasis on mitigation in these sectors, apart from laying emphasis on renewable energy resources, shifting from carbon-subsiding to carbon-taxing regimes, green funding, and other incentives to transit to a low carbon economy.

The sixth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggests that agriculture, forestry, and other land uses (AFOLU) sector can provide close to a third of the global mitigation potential needed for a 1.5°C or 2°C pathway towards 2050. About 30-50% of this potential can be achieved at below $20 per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2-eq). The AFOLU sector contributed almost a quarter of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2019 after energy and industrial sectors. The sector is an important carbon sink, absorbing almost a third of global anthropogenic CO2 emissions and provides biomass resources that can substitute for fossil fuels. The sector is noteworthy for emitting non-CO2 gases namely methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). Land also plays an important role in climate through albedo effects (how much incoming sunlight is reflected to space) and evapotranspiration although their role in contributing to the earth’s climate is unclear. The sector provides several co-benefits such as enhancing biodiversity and ecosystem services and has synergies with sustainable development goals (SDGs).

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Despite its potential for climate mitigation at low cost, co-benefits and synergies with SDGs, the lack of climate financing and other barriers are impeding the sector from realising its full potential.

The sector's contribution to global net mitigation has so far been modest, delivering about 1.4% of global gross GHG emissions reduction over the period 2010-2019. Forestry-related measures accounted for a major share (>80%) of this. Mitigation measures such as establishing and respecting tenure rights and community forestry, improved agricultural and forest management, biodiversity conservation, payment for ecosystem services, joint regulatory efforts, etc., have contributed to this modest achievement. So far $0.7 billion per year has been spent on mitigation in the AFOLU sector which is well below the $400 billion per year — an amount less than current subsidies provided to agricultural and forestry sectors — needed by 2050 to deliver about 30% of the global mitigation effort.

The IPCC estimates the likely range of global land-based mitigation potential at around 8-14 GtCO2-eq per year between 2020 and 2050 at $100 per tCO2-eq. Between 30% and 50% of this potential can be achieved at less than $20 per tCO2-eq. Protection, improved management and restoration of forests and other ecosystems have the potential to reduce emissions or sequester around 7.3 GtCO2-eq per year. In the NDCs, reducing deforestation has been assigned a major role for realising the Paris climate goals. The economic potential is estimated to be the highest in tropical countries due to the large potential from reducing deforestation and sequestering carbon in forests and agriculture.

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Agriculture has a mitigation potential of around 4.1 GtCO2 eq per year at up to $100 per tCO2-eq through enhancement of soil carbon management in croplands and grasslands, biochar, agroforestry, improved rice, crop nutrient and manure management and other improved agricultural management practices.

Demand-side measures such as shifting to sustainable and healthy diets, reducing food wastage and loss will help reduce agricultural land needs, and along with improved use of wood has an economic potential of about 2.9 GtCO2-eq per year.

There are several barriers to effective implementation of AFOLU mitigation measures. Lack of resources and providing alternative livelihoods to rural communities who depend on forests, agriculture and other ecosystems is a major constraint. In their NDCs, 82 parties to the UNFCCC cited poverty, inequality and other social issues as constraining the implementation of mitigation measures. Tradition and cultural values, and local contexts can constrain efforts to shift to plant-based diets and those with low carbon footprint.

Weak governance, accountability and institutions pose a challenge to the implementation of mitigation measures. Lack of property rights, insecure tenures, lack of participation of indigenous and marginalised communities in decision-making and governance failures at different levels can undermine incentives to increase productivity, incomes and discourage adoption of forest and farm conservation practices.

Monitoring, reporting, and verification is another barrier. There is a need to improve methods to measure changes in tree and carbon density on site using satellite data. Mitigation measures need to be carefully implemented by considering their likely impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, environmental quality, water and food security, livelihoods, and human wellbeing. The loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services will affect the resilience of ecosystems to climate change.

Mitigation policies should try to minimise trade-offs and maximise synergies with ecosystem services and SDGs as well as consider scale and contexts. While measures such as reforestation and conservation of forests may enhance biodiversity and ecosystem services, others like large-scale deployment of bioenergy crops may be detrimental to biodiversity, food and water security, livelihoods, and rights of local and indigenous communities in areas where it competes with land used for food production and other livelihood activities.

Without accelerated mitigation, the world will miss reaching the Paris global goals. If this happens, global GDP is likely to decline by 1.3-4.2% by 2050, make us more vulnerable to natural disasters and weather-related climate extremes, and jeopardise the achievement of sustainable development goals.

(The writer is Lead Author, Sixth Assessment Report, IPCC, Geneva, and Senior Fellow, World Resources Institute-India, New Delhi)