The perennially hopeful are temperamentally democratic

2023 will be a struggle; between two political ideologies, between two conflicting convictions of who is an Indian

If all the clichés about politics and punditry were put together, it would boil down to this; there are pundits who prefer the security and cosy comfort of a status quo continuing forever, and there are pundits who are excited by the unpredictable and the uncertainty that comes with a power equation that is dynamic.

The difference is that among the seekers of change, there are radicals, reformists, moderates and the timid, unlike the lot that feels it is safer to side with the powers that be than look for the odd green shoots that could turn into a magic carpet, changing the political scene, by discovering merit in the alternative. The no-changers do not like to live dangerously; the pro-changers certainly do.

Therein lies the difference between the perennially hopeful who are temperamentally democratic because the free flow of conversation, sometimes descending into vitriolic or even apoplectic outbursts of the abusive and unparliamentary kind, is better than the stifling of dissent, differences and discord. Elections for the temperamentally democratic are unpredictable contests; for the temperamentally autocratic, elections are micromanaged battles where outcomes can be altered.

Organisations that are temperamentally autocratic work to drown out the discordant, the discontented and the dissenters. Some do it through direct intimidation and threatening punitive consequences for votes that go astray; some do it by offering "revdis," or "freebies," or trashing the opposition for offering revdis even as they blithely unveil a smorgasbord of new temptations; some do it by delivering dire warnings based on fiendish scenarios revealed in dangerous crystal balls where evil in the shape of the "Other," the sectarian minority, the alien and the illegal, the usurpers and the traitors are working their Dark Arts to overpower the majority, desecrate holy sites, attack the religion.

A political assessment of the past 12 months will, by the logic of this argument, swing wildly between optimism that in 2023 the dynamics of democracy will reject the ruling regime, headed by Narendra Modi and the party in power, namely the Bharatiya Janata Party from the central government of India and in the states that are scheduled to hold elections in the new year and in early 2024, and downright pessimism. It is only the pessimists, the defeatists, the fatalists, and the despairing who have convinced themselves that there is no alternative to Modi and the BJP at the Centre and there should be BJP-led governments in every state and Union Territory to fast forward Sabka Sath, Sabka Vikas and above all enforce Sabka Vishwas.

The dream merchants of despair peddling tales about how about 80 per cent of the "Hindu" population of India is in immediate danger of being swamped by the 14-15 per cent Muslims will work overtime in 2023. as they did in 2022 and since 2009, to convince Hindu voters that they are in serious danger, their wives and daughters are doomed as targets of love jihad and their sons are in danger of being led astray by anti-nationals. The dream merchants have been consistent in repeating the same tale, like a lullaby that soothes a troublesome infant.

The BJP and its superstar Modi and his mastermind Amit Shah are as much soothed by the lullaby of hostility towards everyone who is not a Hindutvavadi as are the 37.36 per cent of voters in at least 303 Lok Sabha constituencies out of a total of 543 constituencies. The liturgy of hate is a bit like the gloomy and depressing Nordic noire ballads.

Up until the end of 2022, the fatalistic TINA (there is no alternative) ballad seemed a believable prediction by the crystal ball gazers employing their Dark Arts. In the final days of 2022, there is a palpable shift in mood. The butt of BJP's relentless campaign against the Congress, Rahul Gandhi not only walked nearly 3000 kilometres, starting from Kanyakumari, but he walked on to the political stage, transformed from "Pappu" into a superstar.

Narendra Modi's doughtiest general, Amit Shah, the mastermind and strategist of BJP's election battles, had no inkling that Bharat Jodo Yatra's message challenged the narrative that Modi "taught them a lesson" in 2002, which is an obvious reference to the post-Godhra massacre in Gujarat. Neither Shah nor Modi, and certainly not the submissive and obedient BJP, had a clue that the message of establishing "Akhand Shanti," or eternal peace would be categorically rejected in Himachal Pradesh.

The toxic messages worked in Gujarat because Amit Shah and Modi are sons of the soil, and the state's voters continue to be infatuated with their "success." The message failed in Himachal Pradesh, where the idea of the Uniform Civil Code was floated along with appeals that voting for the lotus was voting for Modi. In Himachal Pradesh, what mattered were issues like Pensions for government employees, recruitment to the armed forces like Agnipath, unemployment, corruption and endless
delays in filling vacancies in government departments, cost of living crisis, inflation and an economy that seems to have little to offer the work force.

Every new year tests the power and the endurance of the people; will they continue to suffer under the same regime because the cost of change is prohibitively risky, or will they choose an alternative. In 2023, voters in nine states will get a chance to decide – continue with what is or opt for the alternative. It is unlikely that the BJP, wherever it is the ruling party, will be ousted. It is equally unlikely that the opposition, which includes the Congress, will be voted to power in every one of the
nine states.

Decisions will, however, be made. Bharat Jodo has driven home the message that unemployment, joblessness, religious identities and instigating hate and hostility are not the only way. There is an alternative in politics that values diversity, upholds difference, promotes dignity and presumes that Indians are tolerant, decent people who want to get on with their lives. More than a contest between Rahul Gandhi and Narendra Modi, 2023 and till the Lok Sabha elections in 2024, there will
be a struggle; between two political ideologies, between two conflicting convictions of who is an Indian. Is India a place that believes some of its people should be slaughtered, as in "goli maro..." or is it an India that is comfortable in its heterogeneity? There will be as many answers to the question as there ought to be in a democracy.

(Shikha Mukerjee is a senior journalist based in Kolkata)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.