<p>India stands at a crucial demographic juncture, yet its data ecosystem is facing its greatest challenge. The last Census in India was conducted in 2011, when the country still lagged behind China in terms of total population, and both nations were under different leadership. India was scheduled to conduct its decadal Census in 2021, but this was cancelled due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Three years past the scheduled date and 13 years since the last Census, the process is expected to kick off in 2025. What is more astounding is the silence from officials regarding the Census and its apparent devaluation.</p>.<p>Over these 13 years, the world’s demography has changed both in terms of population numbers and characteristics. Countries are grappling with low fertility rates, population ageing, and the subsequent impact on labour force and productivity. India, with its large share of young people, has the potential to be a key player in the global economy. However, India’s own demographic landscape has also undergone a transition during these years. The country has now surpassed China in total population, fertility rates have declined, and life expectancy has increased. Yet, all the data we hear about India’s population scenario today is based on projections.</p>. Modi afraid of caste census as everyone is demanding their share, says Kharge.<p>In the absence of a comprehensive, country-wide Census, India’s data ecosystem is under significant threat. Large-scale surveys that provide estimates on critical development parameters are using a decade-old population frame, raising concerns about their estimates and making us overly reliant on projections. This reliance wouldn’t be as problematic if the Census only provided a population count. However, the Census offers a wealth of vital information, including population characteristics like age structure, sex, and literacy, as well as data on religion, caste, tribes, and languages. It also encompasses information on economic activity, migration, births, and deaths.</p>.<p>Demography is like a tectonic plate; when it shifts, it affects everything around it. In these 13 years, much has been talked about India’s changing demographics. A fair share of its population is still young. With people’s increasing aspirations of having smaller families, the burden of dependency on the working age population should decrease. This would allow more savings and subsequently, benefit the economy. But providing this young force with jobs is the prerequisite of this development dream. Another half of this story is population ageing. The share of India’s old age population is projected to rise in the coming decades; this will require a different kind of planning such as providing social security, arranging for geriatric care and combating rising costs of medical expenditure. The story of India’s future thus consists of both a dream and a scare. However, the battle to fulfil the dream and combating the scare can never be fought with projected figures. The Census of a country lies at the core of any development agenda. Without having the actual knowledge about the character of the population, effective planning can never be done.</p>.<p><strong>Tracking of progress affected</strong></p>.<p>In the absence of a recent census, it becomes very difficult to monitor the progress of the country in a true sense. In a heterogeneous country like India which is divided along the contours of religion, caste and wealth, it is of utmost importance to know the magnitude and severity of the disparities. The philosophy of ‘leaving no one behind’ and the idea of sustainable development requires a continuous monitoring of the population subgroups and making targeted efforts. Without the Census, none of these seems possible. The monitoring of popular government initiatives like the Aspirational Districts Programme, tracking the progress of SDG goals require inputs from the Census, which provides district-level information. Census provides important information on fertility and migration – the two important pillars of population dynamics. These domains are extremely important for any type of national and state-level policies.</p>.<p>The information regarding fertility is increasingly becoming important in the global context as countries are experiencing lowest-low fertility. In the Indian context, fertility rates vary by regions and socio-economic characteristics. This information has a bearing on maternal healthcare services. This should serve as an important determinant for allocating health resources in the country. On the other hand, migration data is crucial as it deals with the livelihoods of countless households. Census also talks about the economic activities which give an idea about the character of the workforce.</p>.<p>Amidst the ongoing ruckus on the caste Census, the country seems to be suffering from a collective amnesia regarding the population Census. Its apparent devaluation is glaringly evident. The pandemic seems like an old memory now, all the other administrative exercises have resumed their regular course, elections are being held on time but amidst all these, both the people and the government seem to have forgotten the Census. This silence has hurt the Indian data ecosystem the most. The surveys have been decapitated due to this act. This was India’s time to shine, leveraging its large youth brigade with data-based planning and reap the dividend from its changing demographics.</p>.<p>However, the absence of recent data and a lack of current understanding of the population character make this task arduous. The country has to realise that the population Census has no alternative. Ignoring and avoiding it will be like sailing a ship without a compass. India’s census is not only about numbers. It is about the characters of those population figures – their stories of progress, their struggles and achievements in this country – and is the best yardstick to measure this country’s progress. Every number counted in the census tells a story, and together these numbers weave the narrative of India’s journey towards progress and development. In the absence of a latest census, India grapples with an unfinished narrative and a missing roadmap in the path towards development.</p>.<p><em><strong>(Nitin is a research intern at the Indian Council of Social Science Research, Delhi; Paramita is a doctoral fellow, population studies at IIPS, Mumbai)</strong></em></p>
<p>India stands at a crucial demographic juncture, yet its data ecosystem is facing its greatest challenge. The last Census in India was conducted in 2011, when the country still lagged behind China in terms of total population, and both nations were under different leadership. India was scheduled to conduct its decadal Census in 2021, but this was cancelled due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Three years past the scheduled date and 13 years since the last Census, the process is expected to kick off in 2025. What is more astounding is the silence from officials regarding the Census and its apparent devaluation.</p>.<p>Over these 13 years, the world’s demography has changed both in terms of population numbers and characteristics. Countries are grappling with low fertility rates, population ageing, and the subsequent impact on labour force and productivity. India, with its large share of young people, has the potential to be a key player in the global economy. However, India’s own demographic landscape has also undergone a transition during these years. The country has now surpassed China in total population, fertility rates have declined, and life expectancy has increased. Yet, all the data we hear about India’s population scenario today is based on projections.</p>. Modi afraid of caste census as everyone is demanding their share, says Kharge.<p>In the absence of a comprehensive, country-wide Census, India’s data ecosystem is under significant threat. Large-scale surveys that provide estimates on critical development parameters are using a decade-old population frame, raising concerns about their estimates and making us overly reliant on projections. This reliance wouldn’t be as problematic if the Census only provided a population count. However, the Census offers a wealth of vital information, including population characteristics like age structure, sex, and literacy, as well as data on religion, caste, tribes, and languages. It also encompasses information on economic activity, migration, births, and deaths.</p>.<p>Demography is like a tectonic plate; when it shifts, it affects everything around it. In these 13 years, much has been talked about India’s changing demographics. A fair share of its population is still young. With people’s increasing aspirations of having smaller families, the burden of dependency on the working age population should decrease. This would allow more savings and subsequently, benefit the economy. But providing this young force with jobs is the prerequisite of this development dream. Another half of this story is population ageing. The share of India’s old age population is projected to rise in the coming decades; this will require a different kind of planning such as providing social security, arranging for geriatric care and combating rising costs of medical expenditure. The story of India’s future thus consists of both a dream and a scare. However, the battle to fulfil the dream and combating the scare can never be fought with projected figures. The Census of a country lies at the core of any development agenda. Without having the actual knowledge about the character of the population, effective planning can never be done.</p>.<p><strong>Tracking of progress affected</strong></p>.<p>In the absence of a recent census, it becomes very difficult to monitor the progress of the country in a true sense. In a heterogeneous country like India which is divided along the contours of religion, caste and wealth, it is of utmost importance to know the magnitude and severity of the disparities. The philosophy of ‘leaving no one behind’ and the idea of sustainable development requires a continuous monitoring of the population subgroups and making targeted efforts. Without the Census, none of these seems possible. The monitoring of popular government initiatives like the Aspirational Districts Programme, tracking the progress of SDG goals require inputs from the Census, which provides district-level information. Census provides important information on fertility and migration – the two important pillars of population dynamics. These domains are extremely important for any type of national and state-level policies.</p>.<p>The information regarding fertility is increasingly becoming important in the global context as countries are experiencing lowest-low fertility. In the Indian context, fertility rates vary by regions and socio-economic characteristics. This information has a bearing on maternal healthcare services. This should serve as an important determinant for allocating health resources in the country. On the other hand, migration data is crucial as it deals with the livelihoods of countless households. Census also talks about the economic activities which give an idea about the character of the workforce.</p>.<p>Amidst the ongoing ruckus on the caste Census, the country seems to be suffering from a collective amnesia regarding the population Census. Its apparent devaluation is glaringly evident. The pandemic seems like an old memory now, all the other administrative exercises have resumed their regular course, elections are being held on time but amidst all these, both the people and the government seem to have forgotten the Census. This silence has hurt the Indian data ecosystem the most. The surveys have been decapitated due to this act. This was India’s time to shine, leveraging its large youth brigade with data-based planning and reap the dividend from its changing demographics.</p>.<p>However, the absence of recent data and a lack of current understanding of the population character make this task arduous. The country has to realise that the population Census has no alternative. Ignoring and avoiding it will be like sailing a ship without a compass. India’s census is not only about numbers. It is about the characters of those population figures – their stories of progress, their struggles and achievements in this country – and is the best yardstick to measure this country’s progress. Every number counted in the census tells a story, and together these numbers weave the narrative of India’s journey towards progress and development. In the absence of a latest census, India grapples with an unfinished narrative and a missing roadmap in the path towards development.</p>.<p><em><strong>(Nitin is a research intern at the Indian Council of Social Science Research, Delhi; Paramita is a doctoral fellow, population studies at IIPS, Mumbai)</strong></em></p>
