JOIN USIt has become customary for the BJP to change its chief minister just months before a state goes in for elections. The latest case is the replacement of Tripura Chief Minister Biplab Kumar Deb with state party president Manik Saha. Too many such changes, effected in the past few years, have robbed the action of unexpectedness, but there is always an element of surprise in the timing. As it has become the norm, the party keeps chief ministers on tenterhooks and others guessing. It gains added significance in states where elections are on the radar. Talk of changing the chief minister and his ministers gains currency before the events take place. What happened in Tripura gets more attention because there are other states where it can happen. The BJP has replaced Sarbananda Sonowal in Assam, BS Yediyurappa in Karnataka, Trivendra Singh Rawat and Tirat Singh Rawat in Uttarakhand and Vijay Rupani in Gujarat in the recent past.
Biplab Kumar Deb was not very popular. He was given to unwise and controversial remarks which made him a laughing stock. They did not bring any political dividend to the party but hurt it. His government was not known for good administration. There was a rebellion brewing in the party against him. Deb’s successor Manik Saha is also not well placed within the party. There are already protests against him. Saha has to appease the rebels and establish himself as a chief minister before the election. The BJP is not in a politically weak position in Tripura. It won 329 of 334 seats in last year’s urban local polls, though the fairness of the election was in serious doubt. But it has a problem finding a leadership face and that is why it is changing the chief minister.
Tripura is important for the BJP in many ways. The party gained power in the state unexpectedly, defeating the Left Front which had ruled it for 25 years. The party did not grow naturally in that state, but came into being with a wholesale shift of leaders and workers from other parties. It has no ideological and organisational cohesion, or leaders who rose from the ranks. A party that was hastily put together can also dissolve easily. Two sitting MLAs of the party left it to join the Congress early this year. But the party may not have to worry about it too much. The anti-incumbency votes will be split between the Congress, the CPM and the Trinamool Congress. But the BJP does not want anything left to chance and that is why it went in for a leadership change.