When China fishes in troubled European waters

Rapid global developments following US President Donald Trump’s phone call to his Russian counterpart President Vladimir Putin, Vice President J D Vance’s critique at the Munich Security Conference and the US-Russia talks at Riyadh on resolving the Ukraine conflict, sans Ukrainian representation – have all been eroding the edifice built assiduously by China since President Nixon’s visit in 1972.

The quick strategic transformation underway and the cataclysmic change it is unleashing is worrying Beijing, given its carefully crafted policies of keeping the US-Russia differences intact through multipolarity and global governance initiatives. Any deep understanding between the US and Russia will erode China’s influence at the high table. Under Trump, the US is tearing apart the NATO alliance; he has announced big tariffs and is attempting to expand the US’ sphere of influence over Greenland, Canada, Panama Canal and the Gulf of Mexico. These have opened up a Pandora’s box on strategic stability that characterised much of the post-Cold War order and that benefited China’s expansion of influence.

Even though China formally welcomed Trump’s phone call to Putin on February 12 and the subsequent meeting at Riyadh on ending the three-year Russia-Ukraine conflict, there are lurking fears that the strategic ground is slipping away from under its feet given the emerging US-Russia rapprochement. To put some skin in the great game, China has begun a major push in the besieged Europe with leaders on a whirlwind tour, meetings with leaders of Germany, France, Spain and other countries, and deals on bullet trains in the UK and other regions to blunt any “de-risking” strategies and soften the “systemic rivalry” position of Europe. Foreign Minister Wang Yi, addressing the 61st Munich Security Conference on February 14, alluding to “Westlessness”, said “some countries believe might makes right and have opened a Pandora’s box marked the law of the jungle”. Even though Wang was referring to the US “sovereigntist” postures recently, the participants are aware of the militarisation of the South China Sea or the India-China borders.

Speaking to the United Nations Security Council “high-level” meeting on February 18, Wang insisted on to “reinvigorate true multilateralism” but took a dig at the US by stating that “Any act of bullying, trickery or extortion is a flagrant violation of the basic norms of international relations”. He also said that any unilateral sanctions that circumvent the Security Council authorisation “lacks legal basis, defies justification and contradicts common sense.”

Again, at the G20 foreign ministerial meeting at Johannesburg on February 20, which the US leaders skipped, Wang stated that a “country must not pursue its own security at the expense of the security of other countries”. Wang offered Europe to be part of its multi polarisation drive and sync its Belt and Road Initiative with that of the European Union’s Global Gateway strategy. Wang offered his Hungarian counterpart that China would be a “trustworthy partner”. At one time in April 2022, China even attempted to persuade the EU to take an “independent” position on the Ukraine conflict and on NATO expansion.

European leaders, however, are aware that China’s self-serving proposals are not assuring a level-playing field nor any IPR protection for the European companies in the China market. Yet, the drubbing from the US is troubling Europe. Since 1977, China has been eyeing for a share in the European Common market, independent policies of Charles de Gaulle, multipolarity, divergence from the dollar-centred monetary system, trade and investments, and hi-tech collaborations. Today, China and Europe have become one of the largest trading partners to each other, with bilateral trade touching nearly $600 billion, regardless of European criticism of China on mounting trade deficits, violation of intellectual property rights or espionage cases.

The road for China in Europe is tough though. The EU, for instance, termed in its “Strategic Outlook” on March 12, 2019 that China is a partner for cooperation and negotiation, an economic competitor and a systemic rival. Several European countries criticised China for cyber-attacks, rolled back Huawei 5G telecom networks, and decried China’s efforts to divide the region through the China + Central and East European countries format. It needs to be seen how China’s charm offensive will wean away Europe from the US.

For long, western strategic thought poured resources to build a “democratic” China, castigating at the same time India as “authoritarian” and imposing sanctions that curtailed its growth. The EU even persuaded Russia not to provide cryogenic engines for space launches by India. US-Russia relations are complicated by history, Cold War legacy, persistent proxy wars and complex mechanics of resolving conflict. India, nevertheless, needs to welcome the new churning out that portends to strategic stability and opens new realignments.