Xi’s Asian charm offensive is all about the US

By Karishma Vaswani

At first glance, Chinese President Xi Jinping’s Southeast Asian tour focuses on trade deals, regional cooperation and friendship. In reality, he’s capitalizing on America’s leadership vacuum in the Indo-Pacific. Beijing wants a less US-centric Asia. President Donald Trump’s trade war is only accelerating that.

Washington’s influence in this strategically vital region is at stake. Previous administrations have been clear about its importance, but under Trump there doesn’t appear to be a coherent plan. This has allowed Beijing to position itself as a champion of solidarity, in sharp contrast to the US president’s economic bullying.

This isn’t just a goodwill visit. It’s about soft and hard power projection. Xi’s trip to Cambodia, Vietnam and Malaysia was planned before tariffs were imposed, but these visits have taken on more importance given Trump’s attempt to isolate China. Some major banks predict the Chinese economy will expand by 3 per cent-4 per cent this year as US duties choke exports. Many economists doubt the Communist Party will be able to achieve the official target of around 5 per cent growth slated for 2025, despite reporting a 5.4 per cent growth in the first quarter.

These dire projections make Xi’s Southeast Asia tour all the more important. It’s a chance to mend both political and economic ties. Trump has criticized the meetings, accusing his Chinese counterpart and Vietnamese leader To Lam of conspiring against Washington. He’s also called on China to reach out to him in order to kick off negotiations. Beijing appears to be listening — on Wednesday it appointed Li Chenggang, a former assistant commerce minister during Trump’s first administration, as key envoy to resolve the dispute.

Other nations have received a 90-day reprieve, but they must now forge deals that satisfy his approval. That’s not winning hearts and minds, and may lead countries to be more receptive to Xi’s message of peace and prosperity, despite skepticism over Beijing’s territorial claims in the South China Sea.

Xi’s rhetoric has gained fresh urgency as he attempts to craft an image of global stability, positioning China as the alternative to the US. Recently, he pledged to strengthen ties with other nations by “appropriately” managing differences and enhancing supply chain ties. In Hanoi, he repeated his core message that “there are no winners in a tariff war,” inking 45 trade agreements, including those focused on railway infrastructure development.

Trump’s policies are inducing regional anxiety that could help Beijing cement a central position in the Indo-Pacific, as Ben Bland, director of the Asia-Pacific program at Chatham House told me. “I see the whole of Southeast Asia moving closer to China, albeit at different paces,” he said. “These governments see no path to becoming wealthier countries without more China in their economies.”

This is already happening. China has been the biggest trading partner of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations since 2009, and Asean has been Beijing’s since 2020. The US comes in second in terms of goods, with total commerce at an estimated $476.8 billion in 2024.

The Belt and Road Initiative may have helped Beijing gain influence but it has also brought concerns. Debt-trap diplomacy and bloated infrastructure projects have broken trust about opaque contracts that are often skewed in China’s favor. Xi may be more willing to sign deals with countries on better terms now to show that he is a more reliable ally.

The region has been burned by Trump before. During his first term, he pulled out of the Trans Pacific Partnership, a trade agreement involving Washington and 11 other Asian-Pacific countries that together comprised 40 per cent of global economic output. The pact had been seen as a way to strengthen US leadership in Asia by complementing its diplomatic and military power. The message sent by America’s withdrawal was heard loud and clear throughout the region.

In response, Beijing pressed ahead with promoting the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, a trade pact that eventually included 15 countries to become the world’s largest. China also increased its diplomatic efforts with Indo-Pacific nations and framed itself as a champion of globalization and free trade.

Those who ignore history risk repeating it. Economic leadership is crucial in this new world order. Instead of trade wars, regional visits by senior members of the Trump administration, like US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth’s recent trip to the Philippines and Japan, would help. Compared to Xi’s visit, though, next week’s tour by a mid-level US official is unlikely to inspire confidence.

Washington must recognize the competition with Beijing isn’t just about economic might, it’s also about strategic influence. Xi is playing the long game — and right now, it looks like he’s winning.