IISER Bhopal develops model to predict summer temperatures, extended climate anomalies in India

The Indian Institute of Science Education and Research (IISER) Bhopal has developed a statistical model that can predict summer temperatures and extended climate anomalies in India, using the weather data from the preceding winter.

Research groups from all over the world are involved in developing models for climate prediction in different time (months/years) and spatial (regional/global) scales using known data from past and scientific understanding about the physical and dynamic processes of climate evolution.

The research was led by Dr Pankaj Kumar, Assistant Professor, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, IISER Bhopal and funded by the Department of Science and Technology.

The model development and results have been published in the International Journal of Climatology, in a paper co-authored by Kumar and his research scholar Aditya Kumar Dubey.

Highlighting the need of this research, Dr Kumar said: “With climate change and global warming being increasingly recognised as a threat to the ecosystem, socio-economy and, perhaps, life itself, it is important to understand and be able to predict seasonal patterns for better preparedness.”

The model, apart from predicting the summer temperatures, has also helped in understanding the relationships among various weather parameters and how they have dynamically co-evolved over the past 69 years.

“We have used a multi-linear statistical technique called Canonical Correlation Analysis to predict summer temperatures and understand the relationships among the various weather parameters”, explained Aditya Kumar Dubey, a research scholar.

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The researchers have used parameters such as the sea surface temperature, sea level pressure, zonal wind, precipitation, and maximum, minimum, and average air temperatures from the previous winter, to predict the summer temperatures throughout India.

The researchers have also shown that the summer temperature predictability is better for south India than north, due to the former’s proximity to the ocean and the greater impact of the sea surface temperature on summer heat in the subcontinent.

Because of the effect of the sea surface temperature, south India has been found to be warmer during El-Niño years and cooler during La-Nina. The north Indian summer, on the other hand, is affected by the high pressure and circulation systems at upper levels (~5.5-12.5 Km), which form a heat dome and lead to adiabatic heating, thereby pushing up the summer temperature irrespective of the El-Niño or La-Nina effect.

The model by the IISER team has been able to predict MAM temperatures a season ahead.