Explained: Cyclone Tauktae reveals worrying Arabian Sea trend

Sea temperatures have been rising for over three decades and warmer oceans lead to extreme weather

As the “very severe” cyclonic storm Tauktae sweeps through India’s west coast and is likely to hit Gujarat this evening, it has already marked a foreboding milestone — it is the fourth cyclone to have formed over the Arabian Sea in as many years.

Tauktae, which has prompted the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) to issue warnings for Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra and Gujarat, follows on the heels of Mekanu in 2018, which made landfall in Oman, Vayu in 2019 that also struck Gujarat and Nisarga in 2020 that hit Maharashtra.

The quartet of cyclones in the last four years is an unusual meteorological phenomenon in the Arabian Sea. It is the first time that pre-monsoon cyclones have been encountered in consecutive years over the Arabian Sea since satellite records began in India in 1980. Meteorologists pin the blame on global warming and rising sea temperatures.

Click here for live updates on Cyclone Tauktae

Cyclones are formed when warm, moist air above the ocean’s surface rises upwards to form clouds and cooler air rushes in to take its place over and over until the entire system churns and grows and develops into a large swirling mass that moves in the direction of the prevailing winds.

Climate researcher Roxy Koll tweeted last week that the Arabian Sea was supporting more intense cyclones because temperatures have recently been strangely high and tropical cyclones absorb energy from warm waters, where temperatures are above 28°C.

The IMD, in its recent bulletins on Tauktae, has mentioned that sea surface temperatures over the Arabian Sea has hovered around 30°C-31°C, which is abnormally high for this time of the year, making it fertile ground for brewing tropical cyclones.

Studies have shown that the oceans have absorbed almost 90 per cent of the excess heat generated as humans pump out more greenhouse gases, which experts say will lead to rising sea levels and more extreme weather events like cyclones.