Afghanistan staring at intense instability, civil war

The simmering situation in Afghanistan is coming to the boil again following withdrawal of the US and other international forces - the only element of the February 2020 US-Taliban deal that has been implemented. The other elements – a comprehensive ceasefire, a political settlement concerning Afghanistan’s future and the Taliban severing links with Al Qaeda and other terror groups – have not materialised due to the Taliban intransigence.

The Taliban forces have called for “a genuine Islamic system” in Afghanistan without spelling it out, giving rise to apprehension that they seek restoration of the Islamic Emirate, thereby negating 20 years of constitutional governance in Afghanistan. They have also stepped up their offensive. Well-entrenched in the south and east of the country, their military strategy in recent weeks has focussed on strengthening their control in the north (bastion of the warlords, who had helped the Americans in throwing out the Taliban regime in 2001) and central region, capturing Afghanistan’s border crossings to the neighbouring countries, particularly in the north-western periphery and surrounding key cities for an eventual assault. They have made quick territorial gains and claim to hold 85% of the Afghan territory, though independent reports put this figure at about a third of the districts.

Intelligence assessments of how long the Afghan security forces can hold out against the Taliban vary from six months to two years. There are also reports of ethnic warlords raising militias to resist the Taliban. It is to be seen if all the anti-Taliban forces come together to mount a credible challenge to them. The Americans have said that they will continue to provide assistance to the Afghan security forces and use ‘over the horizon capacity’, possibly from their bases in the Gulf countries or aircraft carriers, to target any terror activity in Afghanistan. They are also reportedly looking for bases in Central Asian countries for this purpose. However, President Biden has made it clear that fundamentally the Afghans will have to defend themselves. Afghanistan stares at a renewed phase of intense instability, possibly a civil war. Even if the Taliban score a military victory, they will continue to face pockets of resistance.

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The role and goals of Pakistan and China in the evolving situation are of particular interest to India. Pakistan continues to seek a vassal state and strategic depth in Afghanistan, recognition of the Durand Line by Afghanistan and negation of Indian presence and influence there. The Pakistanis know it too well that the Taliban push for power will hurt them by causing a fresh flow of Afghan refugees, emboldening the anti-Pakistan terror groups such as the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan and further fuelling religious extremism in Pakistan. Instead of recognition of the Durand Line, which was not accorded even by the last Taliban regime in Kabul, Taliban ascendance will strengthen the Pashtun nationalist sentiment in Pakistan’s Pashtun belt. However, Pakistan is blinded by the urge to see the back of India in Afghanistan. Further, Pakistan’s reputation in Afghanistan having suffered grave damage due to its policies, the Taliban are its only card to stay relevant there. They continue to enjoy sanctuary and more in Pakistan.

Concerns have been expressed that the Chinese, acting in concert with Pakistan, may leverage the rise of Taliban to consolidate their influence in Afghanistan to exploit its mineral wealth and draw it into the ambit of their Belt and Road Initiative. However, this would require stability in Afghanistan, which is far from guaranteed. Moreover, instability in Afghanistan will continue to preoccupy the Chinese in the context of their restive Xinjiang province. Militants of the East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM) have found shelter on both sides of the Durand Line in the past. A reminder of the looming threat came when nine Chinese engineers working on a dam in Pakistan’s Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province were killed in a terror attack a few days ago.

No policy options

There are no straightforward policy options for India in the fast-changing, unpredictable situation. Indian presence and development investment in Afghanistan are threatened. India recently withdrew its officials from the Consulate in Kandahar because of the Taliban approaching the city. As in the 1990s, Pakistan could also use the Afghan territory as a rear base for its anti-India terror groups. India will have to remain nimble-footed in protecting its interests in Afghanistan by, inter alia, identifying partners within and outside Afghanistan as the situation evolves. India, of course, continues to do business with President Asharaf Ghani’s government, recognised by the international community. However, it must proactively engage with various stakeholders.

Commenting on the reports of Indian official contacts with the Taliban in Doha, the Spokesman of the Ministry of External Affairs said that India was in contact with various stakeholders in Afghanistan. It has been suggested that India should exploit fissures within the Taliban by identifying those not beholden to Pakistan. While India has no option but to explore all avenues, the close family and business ties of many Taliban leaders in Pakistan and the Taliban dependence on Pakistan in the situation of a civil war, would create obvious hurdles to their accommodating Indian interests.

In spite of the claim of the Taliban and their Pakistani patrons that they are a changed lot, the Taliban have not evolved ideologically, though their discourse for the international community has become more sophisticated. They have made statements assuring Afghanistan’s neighbours that they will not allow use of the Afghan soil to threaten them. However, the Taliban have an ecosystem of religious extremism, terror and violence surrounding them. They have also not abandoned their links to Al Qaeda and other terror groups.

Therefore, their promise cannot be taken at face value. Barring the last-ditch efforts still underway delivering a power sharing arrangement, a continued push for power by the Taliban and growing instability in Afghanistan may give rise to insecurities among its neighbours and fray the international consensus in favour of the Taliban as a legitimate stakeholder in Afghanistan that has prevailed in recent years. Tajikistan raised an alarm recently when the Taliban reached a border crossing with it, obliging the Russians to say that they would come to the aid of their allies, if necessary. The Iranians, who have hobnobbed with the Taliban fighting the American forces, may also be discomfited at the prospect of an ultra-conservative Sunni force in power in Kabul. There are voices in the US and other western countries critical of the Afghans being left at the mercy of the Taliban and this sentiment may grow if, as expected, the Taliban are seen sticking to their old ways. India could use such trends to its advantage.

(The writer is a former High Commissioner to Pakistan)