Covid third wave may hit 3.4 lakh kids in Karnataka: Devi Shetty panel

The 16-member expert committee headed by cardiologist Dr Devi Shetty recommended a slew of measures to combat the possible third wave of the Covid-19 pandemic, which is expected to largely affect children.

In its interim report submitted to the state government on Saturday, the panel outlined that as many as 3.4 lakh children in Karnataka are likely to be infected by the peak of the third wave, keeping in mind “conservative estimates”.

Health Minister Dr K Sudhakar acknowledged the receipt of the report and said the state will be fully prepared for the third wave “within 45 days of receiving the final report from the committee”.

The 91-page interim report, a copy of which was accessed by DH, said Bengaluru, with an estimated 32.21 lakh population in the 0-18 years category, will witness infections among 45,958 children during the peak of the third wave. It also estimated that 2.2 per cent of the total population in the state will be infected at the same time.

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The Covid-19 Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) said the state may witness the possible surge of third wave either in October or November.

The experts estimated a peak requirement of 3,677 hospital beds in Bengaluru for children, out of which 1,838 beds will be ICU and HDU (high dependency unit). Additionally, it estimated that 7,353 beds will be required in Covid Care Centres for children during the third wave’s peak.

Hospital beds

Statewide, it estimates that out of the 2.38 crore population aged 0-18 years, as many as 3.4 lakh children will be infected, requiring 27,205 hospital beds with 13,602 ICU/HDU beds and 54,409 beds in Covid Care Centres.

These numbers vary with a ‘moderate’ and ‘least conservative’ estimate, according to experts.

“Among the total Covid-19 infections, children aged 0-18 constituted around 8 per cent to 10 per cent during the first and second wave. Most of the national and international data indicated that a maximum of 5 per cent-7 per cent of such children required hospitalisation. However, recent data from the US suggests that children in the age group of 12-17 years require almost around 31 per cent ICU admissions and among them, 5 per cent require invasive ventilation, but no deaths were reported,” the committee’s interim report said. “To meet the surge in Karnataka, we need to be ready for a little higher number requiring hospitalisation,” it suggested.

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Among other recommendations, the committee suggested setting up of an exclusive children’s hospital of 250 beds with provision for 20-bed paediatric ICU/HDU/Neonatal ICU in facilities like the Indira Gandhi Institute of Child Health and in backward districts such as Chamarajanagar, Yadgir, Chikkaballapur, Kolar, Chitradurga, Koppal and Haveri on the premises of district hospitals/medical colleges. The committee recommended earmarking 10 per cent-20 per cent of existing medical ICU beds/ward beds for children in case of a surge in paediatric cases.

It also suggested roping in doctors who have committed themselves for rural duty as an obligation, who have completed internship (around 3,000 of them), to be posted in government hospitals for short-term Covid care duty. A Multi-system Inflammatory Syndrome in Children (MIS-C) Registry to enable long-term follow-up of complications has also been recommended. Another suggestion is a Covid registry, where data is collected in four categories: neonatal (0-28 days), paediatric (29 days to 18 years), adult (18 years+), and MIS-C (Children 0-18 years).

Setting up of Bala Araike Suraksha Kendras, where both Covid-positive children and female caregivers are allowed to stay, has also been recommended.