Bangladesh set for polls, reform referendum amid uncertain voter mood

Dhaka/New Delhi: Bangladesh is going to the polls along with a referendum on reforms in less than two weeks in a dramatically changed political landscape, with the once-dominant Awami League barred from contesting and many voters expressing uncertainty over their choices.

Over 127 million people are eligible to cast their ballots in the February 12 polls, widely regarded as the country's most important election in decades and the first since the mass uprising that ended Sheikh Hasina's rule in August 2024.

Interim government Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus has described the dual exercise as a “grand festival” and said it would be the most free, fair and peaceful vote in the country’s history, laying the foundation for what he called a “new Bangladesh”.

But observers say the absence of a major political party and rising political tensions have weakened the competitive character of the election and raised concerns about stability and legitimacy.

With the deposed prime minister Hasina-led Awami League out of the race, the contest has narrowed mainly to the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), seen as the frontrunner, and the Jamaat-e-Islami and its allies.

Despite the ban, the Awami League, which led Bangladesh's 1971 Liberation War against Pakistan, is believed to retain a large base of supporters who now find themselves politically sidelined.

"I feel little enthusiasm. I am not sure if I will vote. I don’t know whom I should vote for,” said Kader Mia, a Dhaka-based tailor in his mid-40s and a lifelong Awami League supporter.

Another supporter in the southwestern city of Barishal, who runs a small garment shop and did not wish to be named, said staying away from the polls could endanger his family as they might be identified as Hasina's supporters and "radical right-wing elements" can target them.

The interim government disbanded the Awami League under the Anti-Terrorism Law months after it was removed from power on August 5, 2024, following violent student-led protests known as the July Uprising that forced Hasina into exile in India.

A special tribunal sentenced Hasina to death in November last year on charges of crimes against humanity linked to her crackdown on protesters, a verdict that many Bangladeshi and foreign analysts have described as "rushed" and "flawed".

Yunus has suggested that Awami League voters are “up for grabs”, while Hasina, in interviews with international and Indian media, has said her supporters could boycott the polls.

She warned that a government “born of exclusion” would fail to unite a divided nation and would lead to prolonged instability in Bangladesh.

Sensing an opportunity, the BNP has appealed to Awami League supporters by stressing "secular nationalism". The party ended its long-standing alliance with Jamaat-e-Islami in August 2025, a move analysts see as an effort to attract voters who once backed the Hasina-led party.

BNP Chairman Tarique Rahman and Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir have increasingly referred to the values of the 1971 Liberation War, the core pillar of Awami League's identity, to signal shared patriotic roots.

In a recent public address, Alamgir said Hasina had fled to India, leaving her supporters “vulnerable” and "in trouble" and claimed the BNP was now “standing by them in a difficult time”.

A survey published by leading Bangladeshi newspapers this week showed that a large section of Awami League-leaning voters remained undecided, while a significant number appeared inclined towards the BNP.

The panel survey by research group Innovision found that 41.3 per cent of Awami League supporters had not made a final choice, 32.9 per cent planned to vote for BNP and 13.2 per cent for Jamaat-e-Islami.

Prominent economist and civil society figure Rehman Sobhan warned that democracy cannot work without “accommodating all key political players”.

Speaking at a discussion earlier this week, Sobhan, who taught Yunus at Dhaka University over six decades ago, said “reimagining a sustainable democracy” meant "finding ways to re-accommodate them (Awami League)" back into the political system.

Several US and British lawmakers have also urged the interim government in recent weeks to allow the Awami League to take part in the election to ensure democratic legitimacy.

Alongside the parliamentary vote, Bangladesh will also hold a nationwide referendum on the July National Charter, an 84-point reform package aimed at reshaping the country’s political system.

Yunus has said the election and referendum together will decide Bangladesh’s path for the next “hundred years” as an expression of the people’s will.

He unveiled the charter in October last year, calling it a document meant to lift the country from “barbarism to civilisation”.

The interim government actively campaigned for a “yes” vote on the charter, drawing criticism from legal experts and opposition voices who argued that the administration should remain neutral in a referendum.

On January 29, the Election Commission ordered government officials to stop campaigning for a “yes” vote, warning that such activity was a "punishable offence" under the law.

Several legal experts said that since the referendum asks voters to choose either “yes” or “no”, the interim government is expected to maintain an impartial position instead of adopting an openly partisan role.

Some jurists also questioned the legitimacy of the referendum, arguing that Bangladesh's Constitution has no provision for such plebiscites.

In a nationwide televised address earlier this month, Yunus urged voters to support the reform plan.

“Vote ‘Yes’ to build the state according to your expectations. By choosing ‘Yes,’ you open the door to creating a new Bangladesh,” he said.

The referendum ballot contains four broad questions drawn from the 84-point charter. Voters must choose “yes” if they broadly agree with the proposals and “no” if they disagree.

Critics say this binary choice oversimplifies complex reforms, noting that many voters may support some proposals while opposing others, making the exercise confusing and politically sensitive.