Explained | Canada votes: What’s at stake?

By Matina Stevis-Gridneff

Canada’s Monday polls are broadly seen as the most important election in a generation.

One of the world’s most prosperous nations and America’s closest ally and trading partner, Canada has found itself in recent months unexpectedly in the cross hairs of President Trump, targeted with tariffs and annexation threats.

But the country has also seen many of its coveted national accomplishments in regard to the economy and social issues slip, including higher costs of living, high unemployment, rising housing costs and a surge in homelessness and substance abuse. Many of these problems, not just in Canada but in other advanced economies, were exacerbated by the pandemic.

Many Canadians blame a decade of Liberal Party rule under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for the country’s woes.

The Conservative Party leader, Pierre Poilievre, has spent the past three years at the helm of his party trying to hammer home the point that he is the change the nation needs to restore Canada to its rightful place as a strong and prosperous country that can hold its own against anyone — even the United States.

But Liberal supporters believe that the country would be in worse shape without the party’s stewardship and, while admitting mistakes under Mr. Trudeau, they insist that the new leader, Mark Carney, is a uniquely competent captain to right the ship during what’s turned out to be a major storm.

Different Visions

The two top candidates in the election seem to agree on what Canada’s major problems are: a crisis of affordability, Mr. Trump’s actions and menacing words, the economy, and crime.

But they offer two competing visions of how to tackle those issues, placing their individual personalities at the heart of their pitches to the Canadian public.

Mr. Carney, 60, has had a successful global career in the public and private sectors, as a central banker in Canada and Britain, as well as an executive at major companies. He has presented himself as a crisis expert, who brings to Canada the experience of a lifetime of tackling economic turmoil, negotiating deals and reading the global environment in times of upheaval.

His critics frame him as an out-of-touch member of the global elite, who simply offers a continuation of Mr. Trudeau’s failed policies.

Mr. Poilievre, 45, a career politician, supports many staple conservative policies, such as cutting back the role of the state, limiting taxes, supporting Canada’s oil-and-gas industries and being tough on crime.

But he also promotes ideas aligned with Mr. Trump’s brand of conservatism: denouncing “radical woke ideology,” promoting steep cuts to Canada’s foreign aid and defunding the national broadcaster. His ideology and his often abrasive tone, polls show, have driven some centrist Canadians who were flirting with voting for him to opt for Mr. Carney instead.

Affordability

Polls show that the top concern for voters in this election remains the question of affordability. Canadians have grown less and less able to afford a home, research by the Bank of Canada shows. Rents and home prices have climbed in urban centers, where the vast majority of Canadians live, pushing people out to suburbs and beyond, and forcing first-time buyers to postpone their plans.

How to reverse this trend is a major challenge for Canada’s next government. Both top candidates for prime minister have proposed new ways to build more homes, in a bid to drive prices down. Mr. Poilievre has focused on deregulating the permitting of new buildings, while Mr. Carney has talked about ways to finance new construction.