Explained | Sri Lanka's high-octane Presidential polls

With the Rajapaksas stepping away from politics, who will come out on top in the island nation's elections this time?

Chennai: Sri Lanka's Presidential elections, the first after the country plunged into an unprecedented economic crisis in 2022, are peculiar in more ways than one.

Here's everything you need to know about it:

How crucial are the elections?

The elections are extremely crucial for the tear-shaped island nation, which is taking baby steps towards normalcy after the economic crisis in 2022 that saw the once-powerful ‘war hero’ Gotabhaya Rajapaksa being booted out of power by a popular citizens’ uprising.

Ranil was elected as President with support from SLPP led by the Rajapaksa and is credited for bringing in reforms to bail the country out of its crises, but some of his decisions are unpopular and prices of essential commodities are yet to see a significant decline.

The 2022 economic crisis triggered by wrong policies of the regime led by Gotabaya brought the country to its knees following which the Rajapaksas stepped aside from active politics for a while.

How did the Rajapaksas lose power?

The Rajapaksas lost the trust of the people in 2022, less than three years after Sri Lankans handed over an overwhelming victory to Gotabaya as the country looked for a “strong leadership” following the 2019 devastating Easter bombings that killed over 250 people, including foreign nationals.

The victory was sweet for the Rajapaksas after Mahinda suffered a humiliating defeat at the hands of his one-time junior colleague Maithripala Sirisena in 2015.

Twenty-three months later, Sinhalese, Tamils, Muslims, and Christians, in a rare show of unity, are on the streets demanding the ouster of Rajapaksas for leading them to the worst-ever economic crisis.

Drowning the island in debt – it is said much of the borrowed money was used for unproductive purposes – defaulting on repayments, shifting to organic farming without any preparation and dwindling foreign exchange that left the government with no money to import essential commodities has brought the island to where it is now.

Who are the main candidates?

For the first time, the country will see 39 candidates vying to occupy the top post, though the contest is likely to narrow down between four top candidates, including incumbent Ranil Wickremesinghe and Leader of Opposition Sajith Premadasa.

With just about a month to go for the polling day, no candidate looks set to garner 50 per cent votes to clinch the Presidency with reports suggesting that over 40 per cent to 50 per cent of the voters are still undecided on whom to vote for.

Apart from Ranil and Sajith, other key contenders are the JVP’s Anura Kumara Dissanayake and SLPP’s Namal Rajapaksa, eldest son of former President Mahinda Rajapaksa. Pakiyaselvam Ariyanethran is touted as the common Tamil candidate but prominent political parties representing the community in north and east Sri Lanka are likely to support either Ranil or Premadasa.

How are they planning to gain the country's mandate?

As the country gets ready for an intense battle, some of the prominent candidates have already hit the campaign trail and plan to hold as many as 100 rallies each across the country.

Premadasa hit the road on August 16 from Kandy after a Buddhist ceremony which was followed by visits to a temple, church, and mosque, while Ranil launched his campaign from the holy city of Anuradhapura.

“Premadasa plans to hold about 60 big rallies in the next month. He will be in Tamil-dominated northern and eastern Sri Lanka for three days in August. He will also meet intellectuals, teachers, and others to seek their support,” a key member of his campaign told DH.

Ranil’s campaign, according to his team, will focus on continuing the reforms to steer the nation back to its past glory. “He will explain how he negotiated a program with the IMF and is successfully implementing it. He will also explain to his voters on how he intends to pay back the loan and reduce the burden on people,” a team member said.

Namal, the youngest candidate, also plans to hold about 100 rallies after launching his campaign from Anuradhapura on August 21. The contest is intense and interesting with both Sajith and Dissanayake, whose party has been making inroads after the 2022 uprising, promising change.

Prof Ramu Manivannan, who taught history at the University of Madras, told DH that the polarisation of politics within the majority Sinhala Buddhist community itself was very surprising as Presidential elections in Sri Lanka had always been bipolar.

“A four-cornered contest with all of them Sinhala Buddhists is likely to result in a divisive mandate. The highly noticeable factor is the deep polarisation within the party political system. On the other hand, the Rajapaksa family has not given up power politics,” Manivannan, who had been tracking Sri Lanka for decades, said.

He added that Namal’s candidature shows the Rajapaksas still have a hold over the party and possess the money power to contest election after election. “I only see the mandate being divisive,” Manivannan said.

Will Tamils be the deciding factor?

With the Sinhala votes likely to be split between the four candidates, the minority Hindus, Muslims, and Christians, all speak Tamil, could be the deciding factor. T

hey don’t find Rajapaksas trustworthy as they pin the blame on the death of thousands of innocent civilians by the Sri Lankan Army during the last phase of the civil war (2006-2009) on the policies of the Rajapaksa administration. 

Wickremesinghe’s austerity measures and hiking of taxes which have led to skyrocketing of prices of essential commodities are also unpopular in the country.

A World Bank report released in April said over 25.9 per cent of Sri Lankan citizens were living below the poverty line in 2023, which is an increase.

The Sri Lankan presidential elections are set to be held on September 21.