First shockwaves of Trump’s tariffs are about to hit world economy

By Craig Stirling

Three weeks after US President Donald Trump effectively declared a trade war with the whole world, new economic forecasts and surveys will point to the initial fallout.

A few blocks from the White House, the International Monetary Fund is set to lower its outlook for economic growth in new projections released on Tuesday.

The following day, purchasing manager indexes from Japan to Europe to the US will offer the first coordinated glimpse of manufacturing and services activity since Trump’s global tariffs — now partly on hold — were unleashed on April 2. Business surveys from major economies are also on the calendar.

The combined picture is set to offer finance ministers and central bankers assembled in Washington a chance to make initial damage assessments on Trump’s attempt to rewire the global trade system.

“Our new growth projections will include notable markdowns, but not recession,” IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Thursday. “We will also see markups to the inflation forecasts for some countries. We will caution that protracted high uncertainty raises the risk of financial-market stress.”

What Bloomberg Economics Says:

“The IMF’s projections tend to skew optimistic during potentially disruptive crises. In the four large crises we studied, the fund’s initial assessment of the immediate impact on global growth understated it by 0.5 percentage points. However much the IMF may downgrade the growth forecasts to start, history suggests the ultimate blow will be worse.”

—Alex Isakov and Adriana Dupita.

Those clouds shrouding the global economy are unlikely to lift for a while. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that the US central bank is is “well positioned to wait for greater clarity” before considering changes to monetary policy, while European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde couldn’t say whether uncertainty has peaked.

In the meantime, Georgieva is hoping the coming days, which also feature a meeting of Group of 20 finance chiefs, might lower the temperature in global trade relations.

“We need a more resilient world economy, not a drift to division,” she said. The Washington gatherings “provide a vital forum for dialogue at a vital time.”

Elsewhere, central-bank decisions in Russia and Indonesia, a key euro-zone wage indicator, and the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book will be among the highlights.

US and Canada

In the US, investors will watch for any additional deterioration in consumer sentiment and inflation expectations when the University of Michigan issues revised data April data on Friday. Tariffs, and the risk they pose to both the economy and inflation, have been on the mind of survey respondents in recent months.

On Wednesday, the Fed’s Beige Book will offer anecdotes of regional economic conditions and provide a glimpse into how much government policy and uncertainty are affecting business decisions.

Earlier that day, the government is expected to report a marginal increase in March new-home sales. With mortgage interest rates largely stuck above 6.5 per cent since October, builders have been trying incentives to get buyers off the sidelines. Home resales data will be issued on Thursday.

A report on March durable goods orders the same day will help provide clues on business demand for equipment.

Neel Kashkari, Alberto Musalem, Christopher Waller and Beth Hammack are among the Fed officials scheduled to speak.

Further north, the Canadian election campaign enters its final week, with polls suggesting that Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals are about five points ahead — putting them within reach of a majority government amid a volatile trade war with the US.

A key architect of Canada’s response to the US tariffs, trade negotiator Steve Verheul, is set to speak at a conference in Toronto. Retail data for February and a flash estimate for March will reveal whether Canadian consumers pared back their spending for a third straight month amid the trade uncertainty.

Asia

In Asia, the week kicks off with China reporting loan prime rates on Monday; economists predict a steady outcome. Recent data showed growth beating forecasts.

Also on Monday, Indonesia publishes trade data for March, which will provide an indicator of the health of the country’s external sector before Trump’s tariffs kicked in, while the Philippines is likely to post another balance-of-payments surplus for March.

On Tuesday, New Zealand publishes trade figures for March while Taiwan and Hong Kong report employment data.

The following day, Indonesia’s central bank is likely to hold rates for a third straight meeting in an effort to support the rupiah — one of Asia’s worst-performing currencies this year.

The same day, preliminary April PMI data for Australia, Japan and India will provide an early look at any impact on the manufacturing and services sectors from the US-led trade war.

Malaysia and Singapore publish inflation readings on Wednesday, with South Korean consumer confidence data also due, a day before the country releases advance estimates for first-quarter gross domestic product.

On Friday, Japan reveals Tokyo CPI as well as department store sales, while Singapore will see private home prices for the first quarter and industrial production for March.

During the week, India and Thailand also report foreign exchange reserves.

Europe, Middle East, Africa

With a holiday on Monday in most of Europe and central bankers gathering for the IMF meetings, most attention will be focused stateside. Numerous policymakers feature on the calendar, including a speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey on Wednesday.

The main focus in the euro zone will be survey reports. Consumer confidence in the region is released on Tuesday, and the ECB publishes its survey of professional forecasters the same day. Its wage tracker due on Wednesday is pointing to slower pay growth, Lagarde said last week after cutting rates.

Investors may pay most attention to the PMIs out then too, offering the first glimpse of activity in manufacturing and services since the US tariff onslaught intensified at the start of April.

Germany’s closely-watched Ifo survey of business confidence comes on Thursday, showing how sentiment at companies has reacted to trade tensions and, on a more positive note, to the agreement on a federal coalition government. Similar indexes in France are released on Friday.

The UK’s PMI reports also come on Wednesday, as will the latest public finance numbers for March. Retail sales data are published on Friday.

The Swiss National Bank releases first-quarter earnings on Thursday, and President Martin Schlegel addresses its annual general meeting the following day.

Finally, Russia’s central bank will announce its latest monetary decision on Friday. A recent reduction in consumer-price pressures probably isn’t enough to convince policymakers to lower the benchmark from a record 21 per cent. Officials may sound a dovish note, though, for a potential rate cut later this year.

Latin America

Fresh off securing a $20 billion agreement with the IMF, which includes a $12 billion upfront payment, Argentina reports February GDP-proxy data on Tuesday.

After contracting for a second year in 2024, South America’s No. 2 economy is seeing a V-shaped recovery and is forecast to lead growth among the region’s big economies this year and next.

Colombia will post February economic activity data after January’s GDP-proxy report thumped consensus estimates, prompting some analysts to mark up their 2025 growth forecasts.

Paraguay’s central bank may be moved to tighten from the current 6 per cent with inflation up 100 bps in four months, to 4.4 per cent.

Brazil posts mid-month inflation data for April on Friday, and if March is any guide, the headline print should push further above the top of the central bank’s target range.

Mexico offers up both February economic activity and mid-month consumer price reports.

January’s negative GDP-proxy print puts Mexico’s economy on course for a second straight quarterly contraction — meeting the definition of a technical recession.

Inflation may hold near the prior reading of 3.93 per cent, just under the top of the central bank’s inflation target ceiling. Banco de Mexico, or Banxico, next meets to consider its benchmark rate — now at 9 per cent — in mid-May.