Siege of Pakistan train reveals changing face of Baloch insurgency

Karachi: From hit-and-run strikes to the terrifying siege of Jaffar Express this week, the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) has evolved into an outfit that can carry out audacious attacks with tactical precision, experts say.

The shift has been evident in the banned outfit’s rapidly evolving targets and tactics since early 2024, after which it has carried out more than 18 sophisticated attacks in the province on security forces, Chinese nationals, innocent civilians, including people from other provinces working in Balochistan.

The BLA militants ambushed the Jaffar Express, carrying 440 passengers, near the mountainous terrain of Gudalar and Piru Kunri on Tuesday. The militants killed 21 passengers and four paramilitary soldiers before the Army eliminated all 33 terrorists on Wednesday.

The conflict in Balochistan, which has 43 per cent of Pakistan’s total land, can be blamed on many factors but the underlying feeling of alienation and deprivation among the Baloch people is the core of the problem.

“Poverty, underdevelopment and issue of enforced disappearances, people not benefitting from the immense natural resources and minerals in Balochistan are hard realities which successive governments have failed to find a solution to,” Muhammad Bangash, a senior activist of the Baloch Yakjehti Committee (BYC) said.

Separatist, insurgent movements are nothing new to this southwestern province with at least four recorded conflicts between the governments/military with the last one being from 1973–1977.

Rebranded in 2006 by Balach Marri, the BLA has since 2017 undergone major changes. The son of nationalist leader Nawab Khair Baksh Marri, Balach was killed in Afghanistan allegedly by Pakistani security forces in 2007.

After that the BLA worked mostly under the unofficial guidance of some tribal leaders who were not happy with the government.

Defence analyst Syed Muhammad Ali said the BLA became a potent force after 2017 when two of its commanders, Ustad Aslam, also known as Acho, and Bashir Zeb were cast out by the leadership for defying their orders.

“The two then formed their own faction. And that is the BLA which is operational now and run methodically by Bashir Zeb,” he said. Acho was killed in an operation by security forces.

Bangash believes that BLA gained empathy from common people because Zeb came from a middle class family.

Historically, these conflicts were spearheaded by nationalist tribal leaders or sardars with their tribesmen as their main soldiers but the current conflict “involves insurgency groups led by common people, brainwashed over the years into viewing the state/security forces as their enemies,” said Ali.

The BLA’s indoctrination of educated Baloch youth is now enabling it to maximise its capabilities and transform the insurgent movement, which is evident in the banned outfit’s rapidly evolving targets and tactics, Ali said.

Many people also blame late Lt General Pervez Musharraf for the situation getting worse in Balochistan. When Musharraf was in power in 2005, a woman doctor, Shazia Baloch, was allegedly raped while working in Sui area with her husband, who worked with the Pakistan Petroleum company.

“She alleged her attacker to be a Captain Hammad stationed there. But despite growing protests to take action, Musharraf refused and termed the entire incident made up to embarrass Pakistan’s military,” said Chaudhary Yaqoob, a former IG police in Balochistan.

He also recalled how tribal leader and a former governor and chief minister Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti, who led a large-scale rebellion against the government, and his colleagues were killed hiding in mountain caves in August 2006.

“I would say after that incident, the BLA became more prominent and took advantage by stoking the anger and frustration in the people and the financial and tactical support they got from foreign players,” Yaqoob added.

BYC's Bangash pointed out that despite the promises of a golden era for Balochistan through the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects, nothing has changed for the people. “They have built an international airport and port in Gwadar but the town remains without sufficient clean water or indigenous electricity. The common people continue to be deprived of basic amenities in many parts of the province, particularly the remote areas.”

“The tribal leaders are content with their power and wealth they get via royalties from the government for the natural resources and minerals on their land and state action against political activists has actually propelled many Baloch people towards militancy,” said Bangash.

Ghazanfar Ali is a Baloch nationalist whose brother was gunned down outside his home in Turbat eight years ago because separatists suspected him to be an informer for the security forces.

“We were never involved in militancy because we are all educated people and we know how people are misguided, how even some of these militants are used to serve other more powerful people’s interests,” he said. “But still my brother was martyred.”

Now settled in Karachi with his family even though he owns acres of family land in Turbat, Ghazanfar says the militancy and conflict will never end in his province until the government engages directly with the insurgents.

“We have seen it happening all these years. There are some tribal leaders and politicians who benefit from the current situation. They, from behind the scenes, give advice to the government and take major benefits and at same time remain in touch with insurgents and misguide them.”

Zubair Khan, a security analyst based in Quetta, believes that the BLA is now as dangerous as the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the Pakistani Taliban.

There has also been talk, albeit unverified, about an alliance between the BLA and the TTP. “The BLA is now a more organised outfit and is also using social media to get across to the youth, including women. It also has several branches.

“It has a Majeed brigade which carries out suicide attacks. The first suicide attack was carried out by Bashir's son (Rehan). It has a fateh squad for preparing targets, has a special tactical operations squad to carry out attacks and kidnappings and also a Zaryab wing to gather intelligence and do analysis which contributes to its operational strength,” he said.

Zubair Khan claims there is “undeniable evidence that the BLA is getting financial and operational support from some foreign forces, including India.”

The vast empty land and mountainous terrains in Balochistan makes it impossible for security forces to be everywhere all the time. “These insurgents are at a big advantage, they chose their targets well and because of the vast distances, security forces need time just to reach the troubled hot spots,” he explained. “Insurgents generally target highways and towns surrounding rough terrain so they can escape quickly.”

The hijacking of the Jaffar Express was also well planned because of the location where it was stopped, he said. “The fact is that the security institutions are struggling to adapt their counter-insurgency strategies to keep pace with changes in tactics by the BLA and other insurgent groups.” Bangash believes that the BLA has become more effective because of its sophisticated intelligence network not only in the province but also in urban areas and cities, including Karachi.

The BLA’s use of female suicide bombers against security personnel, foreigners and even civilians even in Karachi has added a new dimension to the conflict.

After the clean up operation was over on Wednesday, Director of the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) Ahmed Sharif Chaudhary said no one can be permitted to make innocent people of Pakistan the victim of their barbarism in the streets, trains, buses or markets “because of their misleading ideas and instructions and facilitation of foreign masters.”

“Whoever does this, will be hunted down and brought to justice. Let me also say that this incident of Jaffar Express changes the rules of the game,” he said.