Sri Lanka 2024: Dissanayake’s Presidency opens new chapter in India-Lanka relations

Colombo: When India invited left-wing leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake for a visit in February, no one anticipated that the political landscape of Sri Lanka would experience a significant transformation, culminating in his surprising rise to the presidency by the end of the year.

The development has brought renewed attention to the dynamics between the two neighbouring countries.

Dissanayake, 56, popularly known as AKD, was declared the winner of the presidential election in September, marking a complete revolution from his party-led coalition's vote share of three per cent in 2019 to over 60 per cent.

Weeks later, Dissanayake's Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna-led National People’s Power (JVP-NPP) coalition swept the parliamentary elections by winning 159 out of the 225 seats, the first time any party won a two-thirds majority under the proportional representation system introduced in 1978.

The NPP also dominated the Jaffna electoral district – the heartland of the nation’s Tamil minority.

India's invitation for a full-fledged official tour to the NPP leader in early 2024 would have appeared unthinkable, going by its parent party Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna's bloody past. In 1987-90, the party staged a violent rebellion.

As much as it was a revolt against the Sri Lankan government at the time, it was also anti-Indian in many ways. The group was protesting against India’s intervention in the ethnic conflict between the island's Sinhalese majority and Tamil minority.

Dissanayake joined the JVP in 1987.

The JVP, a banned outfit by then, eliminated many activists of all democratic parties that supported the Indo-Lanka Accord of 1987. It termed the Indian intervention as a betrayal of Sri Lanka’s sovereignty.

However, Dissanayake's visit to India this February was seen as a change in the NPP's approach towards India, expressing alignment with foreign investment interests.

Dissanayake being feted by people in India was just the fillip the party needed to convince the island’s upper middle class, who had been fed up by the politics of both major forces in the political divide.

Dissanayake personally conveyed this to the Colombo diplomatic community.

In the 2022 public protests during the island's worst economic crisis since its independence, the JVP appeared to take a backseat, even warning people against joining it as they seemed it was a leaderless movement.

Yet, the movement succeeded and the Rajapaksas, who controlled the majoritarian political platform for decades, were driven out by the majority.

Ranil Wickremesinghe, who replaced Gotabaya Rajapaksa as the President to serve the balance term until the end of 2024, began to steer the bankrupt economy.

The JVP waited self-assured while the public suffered in the International Monetary Fund’s harsh reforms when they came as a remedy to the economic woes.

Sri Lanka's economy did turn around, but the JVP focus was against "corruption".

Indians were the first to call on Dissanayake when he was declared the winner after an unexpected second count.

It is no surprise that External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar was the first foreign dignitary to arrive in Colombo after the inauguration of Dissanayake, who chose India to be his first destination overseas for an official visit.

During his visit to India in December, where he met Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Dissanayake assured New Delhi that Colombo would not permit the island's territory to be used "in a manner that is detrimental to the interest of India”, in an apparent reference to China.

Dissanayake's predecessor Wickremesinghe had targeted sealing a Free Trade Agreement with India by the year's end while India pledged a total cost of over $50 million to develop the northern Kankesanthurai harbour.

The Bharat Lanka Housing project and agreements on the supply of renewable energy systems for Jaffna islets were all part of business as usual in Sri Lanka in their neighbourhoods' first policy.

The Indian National Centre for Good Governance engaged Sri Lankans in the capacity development of Sri Lankan civil service, which would come in good stead in the IMF’s governance and anti-corruption reforms.

Towards the end of the year, the Sri Lankan Navy announced that they arrested 537 Indian fishermen this year for allegedly fishing in Sri Lankan waters.

India urged Sri Lanka for the early release of its detained fishermen, stressing a humanitarian and constructive approach to address the issue.

Fishermen from both countries are arrested frequently for inadvertently trespassing into each other's waters.

The fishermen issue is a contentious one in the ties between the two countries.