Student-led political party seeks to disrupt decades of dynastic rule in Bangladesh

Big challenges remain for the NCP as political uncertainty persists

In a significant shift, Bangladesh witnessed the launch of a new political party, the Jatiya Nagorik/National Citizen Party (NCP), on 28 February 2025. Addressing a cheering crowd of supporters, NCP convenor Nahid Islam declared, “Today, with this new party, we are offering an alternative.” The Jatiya Nagorik Committee – Students Against Discrimination, the founding group behind the NCP, had spearheaded the July student uprising that quickly rallied the nation against Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and the Awami League government, ultimately leading to her ouster on 5 August.

Following this, an interim government, composed of advisors and led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, took charge and initiated several reform commissions. Their objective was to rectify the failures of the Awami League regime and transform the nation through electoral, judicial, and police reforms. Among their first decisions was lifting the ban on the Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) party while imposing a ban on the Bangladesh Chatra League, the student wing of the Awami League. However, the proposal to ban student politics in all public and private university campuses has faced strong resistance from students, highlighting a persistent issue in Bangladeshi politics.

Over the past seven months, youth-led movements have demonstrated their influence, but this has also resulted in violence, particularly targeting the Awami League, Sheikh Hasina, minorities, and India. The rise of mob rule, coupled with an increase in criminal activities, has raised concerns over the Interim Government’s ability to maintain stability. Meanwhile, the growing influence of religious groups appears at odds with discussions on a pluralist society. The crucial question remains: will the people’s sacrifices and struggles for national reconstruction stay on course?

While students and Islamic parties differ from other stakeholders on election and reform issues, a recent warning from Bangladesh Army Chief General Waker-Uz-Zaman was rather unusual. He cautioned that Bangladesh’s sovereignty could be at risk if internal divisions persist—an implicit indictment of the ongoing discord. Although elections were initially expected by the end of the year, the emergence of the NCP offers the potential to break the longstanding political duopoly of the Awami League and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). As a youth-led movement, the NCP represents a generation that now forms the largest demographic in Bangladesh. However, the party must overcome the entrenched influence of the two dominant political forces to establish itself as a viable alternative.

The NCP has outlined its ambition to create a "Second Republic"—a democratic and egalitarian state through a new constitution. Historically, Bangladesh’s political landscape has been deeply shaped by the Liberation War, which remains central to the ideologies of the Awami League, BNP, and left-wing parties. However, the NCP has yet to clarify its stance on this historical milestone. Meanwhile, recent violent activities by youth groups suggest a leaning towards right-wing ideologies. While a youth-led political party is a welcome development, the appeal of the NCP may be limited by Bangladesh’s historical, cultural, and political realities.

In a country where political culture favours strong leadership, a new party without experienced figures may struggle to gain traction. The NCP’s leaders successfully led a movement, but they have yet to prove themselves as capable administrators. Given Bangladesh’s entrenched political nepotism and patronage system, the party’s electoral prospects remain uncertain. The NCP has reportedly received significant financial support from Jamaat-e-Islami, positioning it as JI’s political ally. However, securing sustainable funding in the future will be a challenge, especially within Bangladesh’s existing capitalist framework, where business and industrialist support is crucial.

Electoral politics in Bangladesh has long been dominated by the Awami League and the BNP, with smaller parties like the Jatiya Party and Jamaat-e-Islami playing strategic coalition roles. This time, however, electoral calculations may shift. The stark political polarisation between secular democratic forces and Islamist alliances—some of which advocate pre-1947 ideologies—poses a new challenge. While Jamaat-e-Islami enjoys street-level influence, its electoral strength, though possibly exceeding its usual 10%, is unlikely to be substantial enough to directly challenge mainstream parties. The BNP, on the other hand, has long positioned itself as a nationalist opposition force. Although its prospects have improved due to the Awami League’s declining popularity, its student wing, Jatiotabadi Chatradal, has been involved in violent incidents, such as the recent Khulna University clashes, which may hurt its public appeal.

Sheikh Hasina is facing over 200 cases, and many of her party members—both those in exile and those remaining in Bangladesh—are expected to face legal consequences. The Awami League, which traditionally occupied a left-centrist position and championed secularism, has seen its credibility eroded by its associations with right-wing Islamist groups like Hefazat-e-Islam. Moving forward, any newly elected government is likely to prosecute Awami League leaders for corruption and other crimes, potentially barring many from future elections.

The vacuum left by the Awami League’s decline creates uncertainty for its erstwhile supporters and for secular democratic forces in Bangladesh. Over the years, many capable leaders have been sidelined due to the country’s dynastic political structure. This moment could provide them with an opportunity to re-enter the political arena, grounded in Bangladesh’s secular socialist roots. Breaking the entrenched two-party dominance will require viable alternatives. While the NCP has staked its claim, its emergence could also pave the way for other competent political figures to re-establish themselves. The key question remains: can Bangladesh once again uphold pluralist and democratic values?

(The author is a professor at the Jindal School of International Affairs.)