<p>Britain faces a second wave of Covid-19 this winter twice as widespread as the initial outbreak if it reopens schools without a more effective test-and-trace system in place, according to a study published on Tuesday.</p>.<p>Researchers from University College London and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine modelled the impact of reopening schools either on a full- or part-time basis, thus allowing parents to return to work, on the potential spread of the virus.</p>.<p><strong>Follow: <a href="https://www.deccanherald.com/international/coronavirus-updates-cases-deaths-country-wise-worldometers-info-data-covid-19-834531.html" target="_blank">Coronavirus Worldometer | 15 countries with the highest number of cases, deaths due to the Covid-19 pandemic</a></strong></p>.<p>They concluded a second wave could be prevented if 75% of those with symptoms were found and tested and 68% of their contacts were traced, or if 87% of people with symptoms were found and 40% of their contacts tested.</p>.<p>"However, we also predict that in the absence of sufficiently broad test–trace–isolate coverage, reopening of schools combined with accompanied reopening of society across all scenarios might induce a second Covid-19 wave," said the study, published in The Lancet Child and Adolescent Health.</p>.<p>"Our modelling results suggest that full school reopening in September 2020 without an effective test-trace-isolate strategy would result in R rising above 1 and a resulting second wave of infections that would peak in December 2020 and be 2.0-2·3 times the size of the original Covid-19 wave."</p>.<p>The lead author of the study, Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths, said the test-and-trace system in England was currently reaching only about 50% of contacts of all those testing positive for Covid-19.</p>.<p>Panovska-Griffiths, lecturer in mathematical modelling at University College London, told BBC radio that the worst scenarios could still be avoided.</p>.<p><strong><a href="https://www.deccanherald.com/coronavirus-live-news-covid-19-latest-updates.html?_ga=2.64159215.1993005664.1591966201-246440915.1591966201" target="_blank">CORONAVIRUS SPECIAL COVERAGE ONLY ON DH</a></strong></p>.<p>"Importantly, what we find is that it is possible to avoid a second epidemic wave if enough people with symptomatic infections can be diagnosed. Their contacts can then be traced and effectively isolated," she said.</p>.<p>"We are the first study that has quantified this, how much this needs to be for the UK."</p>.<p>Schools in Britain closed in March during the national lockdown, except for the children of key workers, and reopened for a small number of pupils in June.</p>.<p>However, the government says all pupils will return to school across the United Kingdom by early September with Prime Minister Boris Johnson saying it is a national priority.</p>.<p>"I think we all accept that test-and-trace is a programme which needs to continue to improve. There is total humility in government about that," junior local government minister Simon Clarke told BBC radio.</p>.<p>"We fully accept that we need to keep driving those numbers up," he said.</p>
<p>Britain faces a second wave of Covid-19 this winter twice as widespread as the initial outbreak if it reopens schools without a more effective test-and-trace system in place, according to a study published on Tuesday.</p>.<p>Researchers from University College London and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine modelled the impact of reopening schools either on a full- or part-time basis, thus allowing parents to return to work, on the potential spread of the virus.</p>.<p><strong>Follow: <a href="https://www.deccanherald.com/international/coronavirus-updates-cases-deaths-country-wise-worldometers-info-data-covid-19-834531.html" target="_blank">Coronavirus Worldometer | 15 countries with the highest number of cases, deaths due to the Covid-19 pandemic</a></strong></p>.<p>They concluded a second wave could be prevented if 75% of those with symptoms were found and tested and 68% of their contacts were traced, or if 87% of people with symptoms were found and 40% of their contacts tested.</p>.<p>"However, we also predict that in the absence of sufficiently broad test–trace–isolate coverage, reopening of schools combined with accompanied reopening of society across all scenarios might induce a second Covid-19 wave," said the study, published in The Lancet Child and Adolescent Health.</p>.<p>"Our modelling results suggest that full school reopening in September 2020 without an effective test-trace-isolate strategy would result in R rising above 1 and a resulting second wave of infections that would peak in December 2020 and be 2.0-2·3 times the size of the original Covid-19 wave."</p>.<p>The lead author of the study, Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths, said the test-and-trace system in England was currently reaching only about 50% of contacts of all those testing positive for Covid-19.</p>.<p>Panovska-Griffiths, lecturer in mathematical modelling at University College London, told BBC radio that the worst scenarios could still be avoided.</p>.<p><strong><a href="https://www.deccanherald.com/coronavirus-live-news-covid-19-latest-updates.html?_ga=2.64159215.1993005664.1591966201-246440915.1591966201" target="_blank">CORONAVIRUS SPECIAL COVERAGE ONLY ON DH</a></strong></p>.<p>"Importantly, what we find is that it is possible to avoid a second epidemic wave if enough people with symptomatic infections can be diagnosed. Their contacts can then be traced and effectively isolated," she said.</p>.<p>"We are the first study that has quantified this, how much this needs to be for the UK."</p>.<p>Schools in Britain closed in March during the national lockdown, except for the children of key workers, and reopened for a small number of pupils in June.</p>.<p>However, the government says all pupils will return to school across the United Kingdom by early September with Prime Minister Boris Johnson saying it is a national priority.</p>.<p>"I think we all accept that test-and-trace is a programme which needs to continue to improve. There is total humility in government about that," junior local government minister Simon Clarke told BBC radio.</p>.<p>"We fully accept that we need to keep driving those numbers up," he said.</p>