World food commodity prices fall in January; sugar, vegetable oil costs see sharp decline: FAO

Rome: Global food commodity prices fell in January, led by sharp declines in sugar and vegetable oils, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said on Friday.

The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in a basket of internationally traded food commodities, averaged 124.9 points in January against 127.0 in December. Despite the monthly decline, the index remained 6.2 per cent higher than a year earlier but was still 22 per cent below its March 2022 peak.

Sugar prices fell 6.8 per cent from the previous month and 18.5 per cent on the year. The drop was largely attributed to improved global supply prospects, thanks in part to favourable weather in Brazil and India resuming sugar exports.

Vegetable oil prices declined 5.6 per cent last month, as global palm and rapeseed oil prices dropped while soy and sunflower oil quotations remained stable. Despite the January fall, the index was still up 24.9 per cent on the year.

Meat prices also fell, shedding 1.7 per cent in January.

By contrast, cereal prices saw a slight uptick, climbing 0.3 per cent from December, but remained 6.9 per cent lower than in January 2024. While wheat export prices fell slightly, maize prices increased due to revised lower production and stock forecasts in the United States. Rice prices dropped 4.7 per cent, reflecting ample export supplies.

Dairy prices rose 2.4 per cent month-on-month and 20.4 per cent year-on-year, led by a monthly surge in cheese quotations, which outweighed declines in butter and milk powder prices.

In a separate report, the FAO trimmed its forecast for global cereal production in 2024 to 2.840 billion against a previously given 2.841 billion. The revision was due primarily to the cut in estimates for US maize production.

The winter wheat planting season in the northern hemisphere concluded in January, with increased sowings in France, Germany and the United Kingdom, while Russia saw a decline due to weather conditions, FAO said.

Maize harvests in the southern hemisphere will begin in the second quarter, with improved yields expected in Argentina and Brazil. High maize prices have driven increased plantings in South Africa.

FAO raised its forecast for world cereal utilisation in 2024/25 by 0.9 per cent to 2.869 billion tonnes, while global cereal stocks were expected to decline 2.2 per cent by the close of seasons in 2025, hit by the contraction in US maize stocks.

International trade in cereals in 2024/25 is forecast to contract by 5.6 per cent compared to the previous year to 483.5 million tonnes, largely due to lower demand from China for barley, maize and wheat.