Xi’s visit to Russia complicates China’s courtship of Europe

As President Donald Trump has injected chaos into the world by roiling America’s alliances and threatening economic turmoil with his wall of tariffs, China has tried to sell a consistent message: We will be a force of global stability during a turbulent time.

That pitch will be more difficult to square as Xi Jinping visits Moscow this week for talks with President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who will honor the Chinese leader as the “main guest” at a military parade Friday marking the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany in World War II.

For Xi and Putin, the visit is a chance to burnish their legitimacy as leaders of countries that defeated fascist Germany and imperial Japan. Xi wants to use the anniversary to draw parallels between fascism and what he has described as American bullying.

“We must learn from history, draw wisdom and strength from the profound lessons of the Second World War and the great victory of the anti-fascist war, resolutely oppose all forms of hegemony and power politics, and jointly create a better future for mankind,” Xi said in a signed article published in Russian media Wednesday.

But his presence alongside Putin at Red Square will also inevitably remind the world of China’s support for Russia’s war in Ukraine, which has been grinding on for more than three years, killing hundreds of thousands and upending European security.

The optics of the visit could undermine China’s efforts to repair its relationship with Europe to try to offset the pain of its punishing trade war with the United States. American and Chinese officials will hold initial trade talks this weekend in Switzerland, but the likelihood of a prolonged fight remains high. China needs to maintain access to, or even expand, markets like Europe, for its exports that had previously been destined for American buyers.

“Xi’s presence in Moscow, alongside Putin, will serve as a stark reminder to Europe of just how close this relationship has become, and the threat that it could one day pose to NATO’s eastern flank,” said Noah Barkin, a senior adviser at Rhodium Group and a visiting senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States based in Berlin.

That closeness may have been overshadowed recently by Trump’s attempts to strike a peace deal in Ukraine that heavily favored Russia, Barkin added, but it will come back into focus now that China is trying to court Europe.

Beijing has long sought to peel the affluent nations of the European Union from Washington’s influence. Those efforts have been stymied by tensions over human rights; a yawning trade imbalance fueled by the flood of Chinese exports like electric vehicles; and most significantly, China’s continued diplomatic and economic support for Russia despite the war in Ukraine.

In recent days, Beijing has been trying to initiate a thaw with Brussels, sensing an opening from the fracturing of the trans-Atlantic alliance because of the Trump administration’s antagonism toward Europe. In a statement Tuesday, Xi called for a “healthy and stable China-EU relationship.”

On Tuesday, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said China and the European Parliament had agreed to remove restrictions on exchanges between their officials, and confirmed that China had lifted sanctions on members of the European Parliament. China’s moves have been seen by analysts as an attempt to persuade the Europeans to restart talks on a stalled investment agreement, though there appears to be little enthusiasm in Brussels for doing so.

Xi is trying to strike a “risky diplomatic balance,” hoping that he can exploit divisions in Europe between those who view China as a threat, and those who view it as a vital business partner, said Alicja Bachulska, an expert on Chinese foreign policy at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

But in Beijing on Tuesday, the EU’s ambassador to China, Jorge Toledo, used a speech at a reception celebrating ties between the EU and China to pointedly highlight how Russia’s war on Ukraine weighed heavily on the 27-nation bloc.

“The EU will stand with Ukraine, whatever it takes and for how long it takes,” Toledo said at an event that was attended by one of China’s most senior diplomats, Hua Chunying.

To show off China’s friendship with Russia, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s honor guard will perform at Friday’s Victory Day parade in Moscow. Putin has long attached great importance to May 9, the day when Moscow celebrates its victory over the Nazis. The Soviet Union lost an estimated 27 million soldiers and civilians during the war, a staggering death toll, which many Russians view as the high cost Moscow had to bear to save the world from the fascist threat.

The Russian leader has drawn upon that emotional history to motivate his forces fighting against Ukraine, falsely casting the Ukrainian leader, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who is Jewish, as the head of a Nazi government that once again must be defeated, regardless of the cost.

Perhaps no foreign leader has been more helpful to Putin in that war than Xi. As Russia faced isolation from the West, China increased its engagement with Moscow, keeping the Russian economy afloat through purchases of oil and other natural resources and supplying Russia with critical dual-use technology and components to sustain the war effort. China also eased shocks to the Russian consumer economy, becoming a top seller of cars and other durable goods, as Western brands retreated from the Russian market.

As much as Xi may want to win over Europe, his relationship with Putin is paramount. He views Russia as a critical counterweight to the United States and a partner in forging an alternative world order suspicious of Western dominance.

“Standing next to Putin will signal that he has leverage, he has bet on the right horse, and the audience will be domestic and in the global south,” said Alexander Gabuev, the director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, referring to developing countries.

Putin said last month that Xi would be Russia’s “main guest” at the Victory Day celebrations. Moscow will also treat the Chinese leader’s trip, stretching from May 7-10, as a “separate visit” complete with bilateral talks and events, Putin said. The leaders are expected to sign agreements, and, in September, Putin will visit China when Beijing marks the anniversary of the end of World War II.

Putin and Xi, who have met dozens of times in the past decade, regularly speak of a stable, enduring and long-term relationship between their countries. Projecting solidarity with Russia is crucial for China at a time when Trump has pursued an attempted rapprochement with Moscow while launching a trade war against Beijing.

“The priority was to signal to the US that China and Russia share an unbreakable bond. There have been some moments of doubts and suspicion in the past few months, especially given the direct engagement between the United States and Russia,” said Yun Sun, the director of the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington. Now with U.S. efforts to mediate a peace deal in Ukraine at a stalemate, “there are more incentives between China and Russia to present a solid image of their alignment.”