Year-ender 2025: A year of half ceasefires and precarious peace

If one were to flip through the world events of 2025, there is a good chance one would settle for the word ‘precarious’ to describe the current international arena. While 2024 set the stage for a new dawn, it was 2025 which witnessed a fundamental shift in the global faultlines that fractured the hitherto world order, paving way for a new and unsettled reality. 

The year saw a rise in neighbourhood scuffles and skirmishes along the border even as parallel efforts were made to end the ongoing conflicts and bring the opposing parties to the table.

US’ harbinger of peace

US President Donald Trump.

2025 began by ushering in the United States’ newly elected President Donald Trump into the White House for his second tenure. 

Giddy with excitement and armed with an ‘America First policy’, the Republican candidate, as soon as he took oath, swiftly began to reverse his predecessor and political rival Joe Biden’s policies. 

Over the next 11 months, Biden would become a prominent feature in Trump’s speeches and often be referred to as the yardstick that brought forth the decline of America. Throughout his speeches, Trump claimed he inherited a ‘mess” from his predecessor but now the nation’s economy is poised for an ‘economic boom’. 

But if one could give word of the year solely for America, it would be “tariffs”. The same sentiment is recognised by Trump, who said, "tariffs is my favourite word”.  On April 2, Trump announced America’s liberation day by imposing reciprocal tariffs for major US trading partners. India too, became a victim of Trump’s tariff tirade.

Frustrated with India for purchasing Russian oil, Trump first introduced a 25% tariff on goods from India and later doubled it to 50%.  The introduction of tariffs widened an already present rift between the two nations. 

The first signs of friction came in the aftermath of Operation Sindoor when Trump declared he had brought the India-Pakistan war to an end -- a claim India has vehemently denied. 

Throughout the year, Trump would take credit for ‘ending’ eight wars including Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Gaza, Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo, Thailand and Cambodia, among others. 

The price of a fractured peace

US President Donald Trump (right) with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

In February 2025, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made a trip to the United States of America to meet the newly elected Republican President Donald Trump in order to ensure his unwavering support for his country and sign an agreement that would give the US access to Ukraine's mineral resources which has been at war with Russia for nearly four years.

Unfortunately that meeting turned into a shouting match where Trump and Vice President J D Vance berated and belittled the Ukrainian President, calling him ungrateful for not ‘thanking’ the US for their help.In between the shouting match, one could catch a glimpse of what Zelenskyy said when Trump condescendingly asked him, “You don’t want a ceasefire?” He replied by saying, “Ask what our people feel about ceasefire, what they think.” 

The meeting gained widespread attention for the squabble which erupted between the heads of state with many lauding Zelenskyy’s mettle for holding his own. 

However, only months later, Zelenskyy would address his country by forlornly saying, “Ukraine may now face a very difficult choice, either losing its dignity or the risk of losing a key partner.”

Over the year, Washington was able to nudge the two warring nations----Russia and Ukraine----to meet at the table for negotiating peace. The superpower proposed its 28-point peace plan to both the countries and for the first time Zelenskyy did not outright reject the ceasefire proposal. This was a surprise in itself. 

The ceasefire proposal stated that provinces like Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk will be recognised “as de facto Russian”. The line of contact in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia must be frozen. However, these two territories are already under the control of Russia, which means, by way of principle, it would be under its control. 

But the point which really pinched Zelenskyy was that, if he agreed to the ceasefire, the doors of NATO would be firmly shut for Ukraine. This is the most contentious point of the peace plan. 

Russia has vehemently opposed Ukraine’s plan to join the trans-atlantic alliance. What this treaty does is cement that opposition further and erase all hopes of Ukraine to join NATO. At the moment, talks are underway in Miami where Russian, Ukrainian and US diplomats have gathered to chalk out how to end the war.

Ceasefire: Hanging by a thread

Palestinians walk among piles of rubble and damaged buildings, amid a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, in the northern Gaza Strip.

For over two years, the people of Gaza were forced to suffer through a reign of terror as they became victims of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s mission to eliminate Hamas. 

Heart-wrenching scenes of families losing their loved ones, children dying of starvation and people living in tents during the cold winter months had become Gaza’s norm since Hamas’ October 2023 attack on Israel. 

When famine descended upon the province, the crisis deepened, propelling the world leaders to push Israel and Hamas to call for a ceasefire in January. Though reluctantly, a ceasefire was agreed. The first phase of it saw the release of some Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. It also allowed humanitarian aid to reach Gaza and deliver supplies to its 2.3 million residents. 

But just as the two parties were to enter the second phase of this fragile peace,--brokered by Qatar, Egypt and US --collapsed when Israel launched an airstrike on Gaza which killed more than 400 people and injured scores of others. When questioned regarding this change in stance, both the blocs blamed each other for not adhering to norms of the peace plan.

As the ceasefire collapsed, so did the humanitarian aid, and Gazans were once again left to fend for themselves. The summer soon gave way to the cold and dreary winter months, and the tents in which many of them had made their home became a living hazard for Gazans. This biting cold compounded by the lack of food worsened an already dire situation and the onset of famine soon became another adversary of Gaza.

In August 2025, the United Nations officially declared that famine had descended upon Gaza and a new ceasefire was the need of the hour.

In October, under the Trump administration, another ceasefire was proposed, called the 20-point plan. This US-brokered ceasefire came into effect in October 2025, which dictated that Israeli troops -- though they have occupied 53% of the Gaza territory-- must push back to a Yellow line and allow for an increase of humanitarian aid into Gaza to combat the famine. This was the first phase of the ceasefire. 

Now, the mediators are pushing the two blocs to enter the second phase which would permanently end the ceasefire. But, both Israel and Hamas must settle their differences beforehand. Israel wants Hamas to give up its arms and surrender power to a civilian authority, on the other hand, the plan stipulates for Israel to fully withdraw from Gaza.

It seems that the ceasefire is once again hanging by a thread and one can only hope that recent history doesn’t repeat itself .

The Rise of Munir

Chief of Army Staff of Pakistan Asim Munir holds a microphone during his visit at the Tilla Field Firing Ranges.

Though the Pahalgam attack in Jammu and Kashmir and the subsequent Operation Sindoor--launched to eliminate terror launchpads in Pakistan and Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (Pok)--were the most significant flashpoint in India-Pakistan tensions, it was the rise of Field Marshal Asim Munir that proved to be a more prominent shift.

Following the escalation of tensions between the two countries, Munir, then the chief of army staff, was promoted to the rank of Field Marshal, for his “exemplary courage and determination”, as stated by Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, in turn, making him a five-star officer. 

However, this promotion was just the beginning of empowering the military rule in Pakistan.

Shortly after Munir’s promotion, came the 27th Amendment which aimed to rewrite Article 243 of the Constitution and created a new post of Chief of Defence Forces or CDS. The CDS has the power to command over all three services namely-- Army, Navy and Air Force. The amendment also stated that the Army Chief will be recognised as the CDS. 

So, along with the post of Chief of Army Staff and Field Marshal, the CDS appointment was another feather in Munir’s cap, which granted him lifelong immunity.

But that’s not all. The amendment also created a new Federal Constitutional Court or FCC which basically erodes the powers of the Pakistan Supreme Court by giving FCC the exclusive authority in constitutional interpretation.

The 27th Amendment has created internal strife especially within the judicial community who believe this law strips all power from the Supreme Court and is just a step towards empowering the Pakistan military .

The faltering opposition Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI)--whose leader Imran Khan languishes in jail and was recently sentenced to 17 years in prison in a corruption scandal-- voiced his concern regarding the amendment, calling it a “threat to democracy".

Bangladesh teetering on edge once again?

Bangladesh saw a spate of protests. 

Last year, the ouster of Bangladesh’s former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina paved the way for Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus to take charge as the de facto leader of the South Asian nation. 

The July uprising in 2024 saw many students taking to the streets and blaming the Hasina government for her ‘autocratic rule’. As public hostility grew,  Hasina fled to India and sought refuge in New Delhi. A year later, Hasina was sentenced to death after she was found guilty of crimes against humanity for ordering a deadly crackdown against a student-led uprising.

Back in Bangladesh, the chief election commissioner promised the electorate that parliamentary elections will be held on February 12, 2026. This news comes against Yunus struggling to grapple with the rise of  discontentment for his policies as the reforms he promised still haven’t been fulfilled.

In December 2025, the assassination of a prominent leader of the July Uprising, Sharif Osman Hadi caused an uproar in Bangladesh and triggered massive protests in the country . 

People from across the country took to the streets with emotionally-charged slogans and demanded swift justice for his death. Mobs vandalised and set fire to the buildings of newspaper houses. Hadi’s death has also stoked an anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh with many believing the perpetrators of the crime ran to India. Moreover, the lynching of a Hindu man in Bangladesh has increased tensions between the two neighbours.

Gen Z gives Nepal a new dawn

If Bangladesh saw the ouster of its leader last year, then this time it was Nepal. In September 2025, this South Asian nation descended into a political turmoil after the government took the decision to ban social media sites including the prominent ones like Facebook, YouTube, and X.

In Nepal, social media is not just a platform to voice your discontent against the current dispensation but is also a means of livelihood for many. Thus, after the announcement, the people took the streets to protest the Nepal government’s latest move. This protest was colloquially known as the “Gen Z” protests.  However, the banning of social media sites was not the sole reason behind the common man’s dissatisfaction. 

Rather, these protests were born out of frustration from the Nepali government’s deep corruption and economic stagnation and nepotism. The protests began in Kathmandu and spread across the country with clashes taking place between the protestors and security forces. 

On September 9, Prime Minister K P Sharma Oli resigned and Nepal’s first female chief justice Sushila Karki, was appointed as the interim head. The elections are slated to take place next year.

If 2024 was the catalyst, 2025 was the year of cementing change. With changing governments, rise of border skirmishes and two ongoing wars, the world is slowly transitioning into a new world order. It is a “precarious” time for the international arena and only time will tell where we are headed.