Pakistan's Feb CPI jumps 31.5%, highest rate in nearly 50 years

February's 31.5% rate is the highest since 1974, a spokesperson for the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics told Reuters

Pakistan's consumer price index (CPI) jumped 31.5 per cent in February year-on-year, the statistics bureau said on Wednesday, the highest annual rate in nearly 50 years, as food, beverage and transportation prices surged more than 45 per cent.

February's 31.5 per cent rate is the highest since 1974, a spokesperson for the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics told Reuters, adding that yearly average inflation for the 1973-1974 financial year was 32.78 per cent.

Prices were up 4.3 per cent last month from the month before, the bureau said in a statement. In January, the CPI increased 27.55 per cent year-on-year.

Food and non alcoholic beverage prices rose by 45.07 per cent over last year, while alcoholic beverage and tobacco prices jumped 47.59 per cent due to an increased tax on cigarettes.

In February, the government passed a supplementary bill that lifted the goods and services tax to 18 per cent from 17 per cent to help raise 170 billion rupees ($639 million) in extra revenue for the fiscal year through July.

The government is undertaking belt tightening, aims to increase revenues though taxes, and has allowed the rupee to depreciate as it thrashes out a deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to secure more than $1 billion in funding.

The rupee shed 1.73 per cent closing at 266.11 rupees against the greenback on Wednesday. The rupee has depreciated nearly 15 per cent since the start of the calendar year, adding to inflation.

"This is still not the peak. March is expected to be higher. Food prices are expected to go even higher as we approach Ramadan," says Fahad Rauf, head of research at Ismail Iqbal Securities, a local brokerage firm.

Mustafa Pasha, chief investment officer at Lakson Investments, said: "Inflation is expected to continue rising in the months ahead as IMF-mandated structural adjustments and currency devaluation filter through the supply chain."

Core inflation increased 17.1 per cent and 21.5 per cent year-on-year for urban and rural centres respectively.

"Core inflation is something the central bank will need to keep an eye on when deciding the quantum of increase for the policy rate," Pasha said.

Investors expect the State Bank of Pakistan to raise its key policy rate by 200 basis points in an off-cycle meeting on Thursday.

Rauf added that the accelerating rate of core inflation further raises the possibility of a bigger hike.