India to tread cautiously in engagements with China

India is likely to continue to tread cautiously in its engagements with China, even as mutual withdrawal of troops by both sides from the Patrolling Point 15 in eastern Ladakh may have set the stage for a meeting between the leaders of the two nations this week.

The speculation is rife about a meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sideline of the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) at Samarkand in Uzbekistan on Thursday and Friday. Neither side has so far confirmed or ruled out the possibility of the meeting, but sources in New Delhi told DH that even if Modi and Xi meet this week, it would in no way mark a return to normalcy in India-China relations.

India is also unlikely to lower its guard, not only along its Line of Actual Control (LAC) with China in eastern Ladakh, but also along the entire stretch of its disputed boundary with the neighbouring communist country. The chief of the Indian Army, Gen Manoj Pande, visited Ladakh on Saturday and Sunday. He witnessed the Parvat Prahar exercise by the Indian Army and reviewed the operational preparedness of the armed forces along the LAC.

A source aware of New Delhi’s approach on engagement with Beijing said that if the leaders of the two nations meet in the ancient Silk-Road city in southeastern Uzbekistan, Modi might use the opportunity to convey to Xi that the normalcy in India-China relations would return only when the remaining issues along the LAC would be resolved and peace and tranquillity in border areas would be restored with withdrawal of additional troops deployed in the ‘depth areas’ on both sides.

Another source in New Delhi said that the two-year-long stand-off along the LAC in eastern Ladakh had widened the trust deficit between India and China and taken the relationship to a new low. The Prime Minister and the Chinese President might discuss a roadmap to narrow the trust deficit, but New Delhi would like to tread cautiously and would rather ask Beijing to turn its words into actions to restore peace in border areas. “A quick turnaround in relations is not possible and should not be expected. It’s a long way to go before India can trust China again.”

The stand-off had started in April-May 2020, when the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) had amassed large number of troops along the disputed boundary between the two nations in eastern Ladakh – in a unilateral move to change the status quo and push the LAC, the de facto boundary, westward into the territory of India. The Indian Army had responded to the Chinese PLA’s aggressive moves with counter-deployment leading to the stand-off.

The Indian Army and the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) started withdrawing troops from the Gogra-Hotsprings area (PP15) on the LAC last Thursday. Earlier, The negotiations between the two sides had resulted in mutual withdrawal of troops by both sides from some of the face-off points along the LAC – from the Galwan Valley in June 2020, from both banks of Pangong Tso in February 2021 and from Gogra Post (Patrolling Point 17A) in August 2021. It, however, took almost a year for the diplomats and senior military commanders to reach consensus on mutual withdrawal of troops from PP15 and a couple of months more to implement it on the ground.