Opportunism can be an occasional tactical wedge in an environment of combative international diplomacy. Problems arise when it morphs into foreign policy. A tragic example in modern history was the Ottoman-German Alliance where Turkey’s Sultan Mehmed VI was lured by the prospect of money and of Russian territory, to side with Weimar Germany.
An analogous situation exists today, as the non-Western world agonises over seductive offers from the United States in the backdrop of its confrontation with China. The Joe Biden administration’s algorithm of geostrategy counts India as fair game for its diplomacy.
That is because a high degree of opportunism crept into the Indian foreign policies in recent years under the rubric of ‘national interests’, which our ultra-nationalists adore. Cynicism is touching a high threshold. Bloomberg reported last week that India is snapping up cheap Russian crude, turning it into fuels like diesel, and shipping it to Europe at a handsome mark-up. India buys Russian crude at discounted prices in local currency and sells in dollars, busting Western sanctions against Russia, and is on track to become Europe’s largest supplier of refined fuels this month, while the Biden administration acquiesces in the hope of entrapping India incrementally in its Indo-Pacific strategy. But India remains silent on the core issues of Western encirclement of Russia.
Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu’s remarks at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) ministerial in Delhi last week on the ongoing integration of the QUAD into the US’ increasingly militarised Indo-Pacific strategy to contain China and his meeting with his Chinese counterpart Li Shangfu on Indian soil — and their plan to meet again soon in Beijing — conveyed a powerful message that these are epochal times where running with the hare and hunting with the hounds can be hazardous.
Indeed, when US President Biden finds time to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi not less than five times between now and end-2023 amidst his upcoming campaign for re-election and the cascading banking crisis threatening implosion of the US economy, what is apparent is that the headiness of the two countries tilting at Chinese windmills in the Asia-Pacific has become crucial to Washington’s strategy in the Indo-Pacific.
Perhaps, this is happening partly due to a misconception at our end that by taking advantage of Washington’s dire need of India as a convenient tool in its efforts to contain China, we too can exploit our newfound role as a geopolitical counterweight in our own dealing with China. But that will be an overstretch which neither considers the US’ abysmal track record of using its allies and friends in self-interest and summarily dumping them, nor the inherent limits to our own utility as pawns. Look toward our extended neighbourhood in the Gulf and West Asia, as one after another, the US’ traditional allies are striving to reduce their dependence on Washington.
On April 25, an editorial in government-owned China Daily cautioned Delhi against any misconceptions that might “underestimate its (Beijing’s) determination when it comes to safeguarding its territorial integrity. Not to mention, they (the West) only sink India deeper into a geo-strategic pitfall. Outsiders left behind a legacy of disputed borders, and outsiders are now using it to create greater security dilemmas for India.”
This pantomime is reminiscent of the calamitous route that Mehmed VI took, which also began innocuously with the purchase of two ships for the Ottoman Navy, crewed by German sailors and commanded by their German admiral. The Ottomans had declared neutrality in the initial stages of the war in 1914, and negotiations with both sides were underway when the Sultan moved into the German camp. The international political climate at the beginning of 20th century was also a multipolar one, with no single or two states pre-eminent.
Multipolarity afforded the Ottomans the ability to play-off one power against the other, which they did often with consummate skill. But over-vaulting ambition or sheer idiocy — depending on how one looks at it — led to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Ottoman citizens, and the dissolution of the empire.
One cardinal lesson to be drawn is that opportunism can cost dearly for a power that does not know its frailties. The terrible beauty about world wars is that they lack predictable trajectory, but may also meander through valleys or barren lands where not a blade of grass grows. When world order collapses, it is often unexpected, rapid, and violent, as a phase of brutal anarchy begins.
(MK Bhadrakumar is a former diplomat)
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.