BJP gets 2019 scare as SP-BSP combine changes electoral equations in UP

The BJP's hopes to repeat its 2014 performance in the politically crucial state of Uttar Pradesh, that sends 80 members to the Lok Sabha, in the 2019 Parliamentary elections, suffered a serious setback with the Smajawadi Party (SP) and BSP combine - which captured the saffron bastions of Gorakhpur and Phulpur - threatening to alter the electoral equations in the state.

The wins would not only boost the morale of SP and BSP workers but also give a fillip to the efforts to form a 'mahagathbandhan' (grand alliance) to thwart BJP's victory march in 2019.

The loss triggered a scare within the BJP, which appeared to be confident about its victory at both places, especially in Gorakhpur, which was the home town of Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, and the saffron party leaders promised to do "introspection".

Incidentally, it was the SP-BSP combine that had defeated the BJP in the 1993 Assembly polls at a time when the saffron party hoped to ride the Ram Temple wave.

"It appears that we failed to understand the impact of the SP-BSP alliance... it came as a surprise to us, when it was announced... we had not imagined that it would be able to wean away our voters," said BJP leader and Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya.

What came as a shock to the BJP was the fact that it had won the two seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls by around three lakh votes. Even the combined votes of BSP, SP and Congress were much less than that of the BJP in both the constituencies.

OBC vote bank

The saffron party is especially worried over the erosion of its OBC vote bank. In Phulpur, the 'Kurmi' voters numbered around three lakh and a majority of them had voted for the BJP in 2014 and also in 2017 Assembly polls. This time, however, it was split and a major chunk went to the SP nominee, who was also a Kurmi.

Similarly in Gorakhpur, a large section of the powerful 'Nishad' community voters, who numbered around 3.5 lakh, had supported Adityanath in 2014 enabling him to win by over three lakh votes. This time the Nishads appeared to have supported the SP nominee.

To make matters worse for the BJP, several other smaller caste-based outfits like Rashtriya Nishad Party, Peace Party as well as the Rashtriya Lok Dal had also joined hands with the SP.

"We will have to now change our electoral strategy... it will be a huge challenge if the SP-BSP stitches an alliance and other Opposition parties also join them," said a senior BJP leader here. He also conceded that the BJP's hopes to make a comeback in 2019 hinged mainly on UP where it had won 73 of the 80 seats in 2014 in alliance with the Apna Dal.

Both SP, BSP and Congress leaders said the possibility of a grand alliance has now "brightened" in Uttar Pradesh. "It is now a certainty. The results have proved that the BJP can be defeated if the Opposition comes on one platform," said an SP leader.