Communal issues, equations dominate Kerala bypolls

If it was the Sabarimala women entry issue that became a crucial factor in the recent Lok Sabha elections in Kerala, a tussle between two prominent Christian groups and the stand of prominent Hindu Nair community might also influence the October 21 bypoll to five Assembly seats.

For the ruling CPM-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) front the by-polls are crucial in overcoming the rout it faced in the Lok Sabha polls in Kerala. The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) wants to at least retain its four sitting seats and overcome the embarrassment caused in losing a recent by-poll to Pala Assembly seat that was held by Kerala Congress (M) Leader K M Mani for 54 years.

Though the BJP-led NDA had chances of winning at couple of seats, candidates selections have cast shadow over it. Now the saffron party is having just one MLA.

Among the five seats going to by-polls Vattiyoorkavu in Thiruvananthapuram, Konni in Pathanamthitta, Ernakulam in Kochi and Manjeswaram in Kasargod favoured the UDF in the 2016 elections. Aroor in Alappuzha, the other seat going to by-poll, was with the LDF.

Sabarimala women entry issue dominates the election campaign with the Congress trying to attack the left-front and the BJP of doing nothing to protect the interest of the believers. They accuse the BJP of not bringing a legislation to protect belief over Sabarimala as assured during the Lok Sabha polls and also highlights a bill mooted by its MP N K Premachandran for protecting faiths over Sabarimala.

The BJP is highlighting the aggressive stir it initiated against Sabarimala women entry and even party state general secretary K Surendran, who led the Sabarimala stirs, was fielded at Konni, which is close to the Sabarimala temple. The left-front is trying to put up a defense by highlighting development initiatives at Sabarimala, including the recent decision take forward Sabarimala airport project despite the legal tangle over the project site persisting.

The Nair Service Society, a body of the prominent Hindu Nair community, openly flayed the left-front and the BJP, especially over Sabarimala. The Nair community is detrimental factor in many constituencies, especially Vattiyoorkavu in Thiruvananthapuram.

Tussle between Orthodox and Jacobite factions of the Malankara Orthodox Syrian Church in Kerala over rights of 1,100 churches will also have an influence on the by-polls. Orthodox faction members were unhappy with the left-front government for soft-pedaling implementation of SC order in their favour. CPM state secretary Kodiyeri Balakrishnan's 'courtesy call' to the Orthodox faction head the other day vindicates left-front's concerns.

Though the BJP had high chances at Vattiyoorkavu and Manjeswaram where it came second in 2016, candidate selection have diminished the chances. Mizoram former Governor Kummanam Rajasekharan, who came second in the Vattiyoorkavu Assembly segment in 2016 and 2019 Lok Sabha polls, was denied seat reportedly following inner party politics. The present candidate, BJP district president S Suresh, is not as popular as Kummanam.

BJP leader Surendran, who lost by just 89 votes at Manjeswaram in 2016, was fielded at Konni this time. Instead, Ravisha Tantri Kuntar was fielded at Manjeswaran this time considering the high votes he pooled in the Manjeswaram Assembly segment in the Kasargod Lok Sabha polls, though he lost.