More than 1 billion Asians will join global middle class by 2030

By Alex Tanzi,

More than 1 billion Asians are set to join the global middle class by 2030, according to a new study that predicts the pandemic will prove just a temporary pause in the world economy’s great demographic shift.

The middle class -- households where per-capita spending is between $11 and $110 a day -- amounts to some 3.75 billion people this year, according to the World Data Lab. That cohort is projected to keep growing through 2030 with India and China, the most populous countries, adding about three-quarters of a billion members between them.

Credit: Bloomberg

The other biggest contributors are also in Asia. They include countries like Indonesia -- projected to have the world’s fourth-biggest middle class by 2030, overtaking Russia and Japan -- and Bangladesh, a densely populated country the size of Iowa, which is set to rise up the rankings faster than any other nation. It’s forecast to jump from 28th to 11th place, adding more than 50 million middle-class consumers.

Asian countries already make up more than half of the world’s middle class, but they account for only 41% of that group’s consumer spending, according to the study. The share is set to exceed 50% by 2032.

China, India and the US are projected to retain the top three rankings as the countries with the largest middle-class populations, according to World Data Lab. Slow or negative population growth in some advanced economies will lead to a shrinking middle class in countries like Japan, Germany, Italy and Poland.

(Note: The WDL study uses 2011 dollars at purchasing power parity.)