Crude oil prices to stay in $75-80/ per barrel range over next six months: CareEdge Ratings

New Delhi: Crude oil price is likely to remain in the range of $75 to $80 per barrel over the next six months as demands for fossil fuels are projected to remain subdued due to slowdown in major global economies and thrust towards electric vehicles (EVs) and alternate fuels, CareEdge Ratings said in a report on Wednesday.

Crude oil prices went up sharply in January 2025. However, the prices stabilised after the United States ramped up its crude oil production even as OPEC countries continue to maintain their output level.

The rating agency said in a report that refining margins of the Indian public sector oil marketing companies (OMCs) have softened in the current financial year mainly due to decline in discounts available on sourcing of Russian crude oil.

Gross refining margins of the public sector OMSs declined to $4.8 per barrel in the first nine months of the current financial year sharply down from $11.75 per barrel in 2023-24 and a high of $17 per barrel recorded in 2022-23.

Going forward, CareEdge Ratings expects gross refining margins of the public sector OMCs to remain in the range of $4-$6/bbl over the next six months.

“Improved retail margins of OMCs are expected to offset the impact of reduced GRMs whereby integrated players having presence in both refining and fuel retailing businesses are expected to be better-off compared to standalone refiners,” said Hardik Shah, Director at CareEdge Ratings.

“Also, good retail margins in the domestic market has resulted in Indian players focusing more on expanding their retail network rather than focusing on exports which was more lucrative especially during FY23,” Shah added.