<p>New Delhi: India's exports are likely to remain stable in the current financial year regardless of the outcome of the tariff negotiations with the <a href="https://www.deccanherald.com/tags/united-states">United States</a>, BMI, a unit of Fitch Group, said on Thursday.</p>.<p>"If, as we expect, a favourable deal is struck with the US, there should not be much tariff disruption to trade. If the talks fall through and indeed, the risks of such an outcome are rising, then we would expect some frontloading ahead of tariffs being hiked,” it said. </p>.<p>“Either way, there does not seem to be much downside for goods trade in 2025-26 at least," BMI added.</p>.Wipro buys HARMAN's digital transformation unit for over Rs 3,200 cr.<p>The research agency noted that there has been no sign of frontloading of India’s outbound shipments despite US tariff threats. </p>.<p>Average monthly merchandise export growth in seasonally adjusted terms has deteriorated sharply since April 2025 to contract by almost 1 per cent in local currency terms in June.</p>.<p>“One might blame Donald Trump’s tariffs for this, but the decline is so far nothing out of the ordinary for India’s historically choppy export growth. What is worth noting is that exports have not surged as one might expect if traders are frontloading orders and shipments ahead of tariff deadlines,” it said.</p>.<p>BMI said India’s current account deficit in 2025-26 is expected to remain modest at around 1.5 per cent of the country’s GDP.</p>.<p>Referring to the surge in India’s exports of smartphones to the US, BMI said, “We expect India to play an increasingly important role in Apple’s iPhone supply chain.”</p>.<p>US imports of smartphones from India have risen dramatically since 2023, growing by an average of almost 160 per cent year-on-year every month. </p>
<p>New Delhi: India's exports are likely to remain stable in the current financial year regardless of the outcome of the tariff negotiations with the <a href="https://www.deccanherald.com/tags/united-states">United States</a>, BMI, a unit of Fitch Group, said on Thursday.</p>.<p>"If, as we expect, a favourable deal is struck with the US, there should not be much tariff disruption to trade. If the talks fall through and indeed, the risks of such an outcome are rising, then we would expect some frontloading ahead of tariffs being hiked,” it said. </p>.<p>“Either way, there does not seem to be much downside for goods trade in 2025-26 at least," BMI added.</p>.Wipro buys HARMAN's digital transformation unit for over Rs 3,200 cr.<p>The research agency noted that there has been no sign of frontloading of India’s outbound shipments despite US tariff threats. </p>.<p>Average monthly merchandise export growth in seasonally adjusted terms has deteriorated sharply since April 2025 to contract by almost 1 per cent in local currency terms in June.</p>.<p>“One might blame Donald Trump’s tariffs for this, but the decline is so far nothing out of the ordinary for India’s historically choppy export growth. What is worth noting is that exports have not surged as one might expect if traders are frontloading orders and shipments ahead of tariff deadlines,” it said.</p>.<p>BMI said India’s current account deficit in 2025-26 is expected to remain modest at around 1.5 per cent of the country’s GDP.</p>.<p>Referring to the surge in India’s exports of smartphones to the US, BMI said, “We expect India to play an increasingly important role in Apple’s iPhone supply chain.”</p>.<p>US imports of smartphones from India have risen dramatically since 2023, growing by an average of almost 160 per cent year-on-year every month. </p>