Sensex could touch 59,000-mark by year-end: DH Poll

As Indian equity markets continue their bull run, a DH poll of 10 analysts tracking the markets shows that Sensex and Nifty-50 could go as high as 59,000 and 18,000 marks respectively by the end of the current calendar year.

This bull run began last year during the middle of the pandemic and it would continue for some more time, say analysts.

In March last year, the markets had hit a historic low.

Sensex touched an all-time high on Monday when it touched 56,958.27 during the intra-day trade. Finally, the Sensex ended at 56,889.76. The Nifty-50 closed at 16,931.05.

As the Indian equity markets continue the bull run, a DH poll of 10 analysts tracking the markets shows that the Sensex and Nifty-50 could go as high as 59,000 and 18,000 marks respectively by the end of the current calendar year.

This bull run began last year during the middle of the pandemic and it would continue for some more time, say analysts. In March last year, the markets had hit a historic low.

“The bull run usually lasts for 24-36 months before the consolidation phase begins. Hence, we are nowhere near to the end of the bull run, but yes somewhere in the middle”, says Ashish Chaturmohta, Director, Research, Sanctum Wealth.

Analysts say that volatility will continue, especially in the mid-cap and small-cap. They feel both indices could touch 16,000 and 53,000 on the downside.

“If the interest rates globally start to rise and/or the monetary tightening starts to happen sooner than expected, Indian markets could also come under pressure due to risk-off trade globally and demand from abroad drying up at least temporarily”, says Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research, HDFC Securities.

Shrikant Chouhan, Executive Vice President, Equity Technical Research at Kotak Securities says that economic indicators ranging from India Industrial numbers to inflation rate and manufacturing production will keep markets volatile in the near term.

Chouhan adds that the resurgence of the Covid-19 variant especially in China and the USA is another concern. “GDP data for the USA is also expected to influence market sentiment globally”, says Chouhan.

Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services says that the key factor is the rate of tapering and the degree of the hawkish stance taken by the Fed.

“This will affect the liquidity of the global market, including India. Clarity is expected from September to November 2021. A part of this effect is already visible on rising global volatility in crypto, commodity and mid & small-caps”, he explains.

However, he adds that in the long-term, the trend will remain strong on the back of strong domestic GDP growth, strong earnings growth, improvement in the corporate balance sheet.

For the common man, the retail investor, Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd says the market shows a ‘buy on dip’ texture.

Record high

Sensex touched an all-time high on Monday when it touched 56,958.27 during the intra-day trade. Finally, Sensex ended at 56,889.76. The Nifty-50 closed at 16,931.05. Only four companies in the BSE Sensex list- Infosys, TCS, Nestle India and Tech Mahindra- ended in the red on Monday.

It is expected that the manufacturing sector is likely to do well but some others may not. “I think most of the manufacturing sectors like Chemicals, Specialty chemicals, Pharma, Metals, Industrials along with IT, Consumer are expected to do well. On the other hand, Banks and NBFCs are still not out of the woods completely. Although some improvement has started to come, recovery is still some quarters away”, Narendra Solanki - Head- Equity Research (Fundamental), Anand Rathi Shares & Stock Brokers said.