Districts around Bengaluru see big rise in Covid positivity rate

Like spokes radiating outwards from the centre of a wheel, districts surrounding Bengaluru have seen an abrupt buildup in their Test Positivity Rate (TPR).

Ten days ago, Bengaluru Urban occupied the top slot with a 10.30% test positivity rate. Now, the city is in fifth place with a positivity rate of 23.78% as a host of surrounding districts including Tumakuru, Mandya and Hassan have seen their positivity rates rocket to loftier heights.

Hassan was the worst affected as of January 17, shows data from the state Covid-19 war room, registering a test positivity rate of 32.93%. In the last nine days, the district's cases have seen a staggering 1,296% growth from a mere 363 active cases on January 8, to 5,069 cases on January 17.

Hassan District Health Officer Dr K M Satish said that the test positivity rate had risen even as the district had scaled up its testing to 10,300 per day.

"Travelers to and from Bengaluru were driving a great deal of the infections. That changed recently when we noticed a trend of infections being brought from neighbouring districts such as Chikkamagaluru, Kodagu and Dakshina Kannada districts," he said.

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There is concern that the positivity rate will rise up even further in the days to come indicating that the district has been beset by a high burden of disease.

Epidemiologist Dr Pradeep Badanur, head of Nimhans' Department of Epidemiology and a member of the Technical Advisory Committee (TAC), said that this change in trend was predicted by calculations before the surge.

"We knew beforehand that certain districts such as Mandya, Hassan, Belagavi, Mysuru and Tumakuru would see a growth in the positivity rate because there is major inter-district travel into and through these districts," he said.

Dr Badanur added that the TPR is no longer the most important metric we need to look at. "Instead, it is bed occupancy and deaths, both of which are low," he said. In Hassan, the district health officer noted that just three cases are currently in an ICU-ventilator bed.

"The common denominator of hospitalisation is people with vaccinations and comorbidities," he said.

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In another district, Tumakuru, which has recorded a 2,420% growth in the number of active cases (from 253 cases on January 8 to 6,377 on January 17), officials said that the positivity rate might climb even further from the 31.49% recorded on Monday.

"The viral behaviour is nearly identical to what had happened in the first and second waves, triggered by inter-district travel," said District Health Officer, Dr M B Nagendrappa.

He explained said the TPR began rising in the last few days amid 8 to 10,000 tests being done per day. But they have now been issued instructions by the government to do only 5,000 tests per day.

"The virus is everywhere, in educational institutions and in the community. Our hospitalisation rate is about 2%. At the current rate of infections, I expect that we will reach our peak in about 10-15 days," he added.

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