Test of Mulayam-Kalyan friendship in Uttar Pradesh

The fourth phase of polling for18 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh on Thursday would be a test of the new found friendship between one time arch rivals-Samajwadi Party (SP) supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav and former BJP leader Kalyan Singh.

While a good performance on these seats would go a long way in cementing their “under attack relationship”, any reversal would only spell doom for the two leaders as it could adversely affect their political future.

Of the 18 seats, which went to polls on Thursday, as many as nine had been bagged by the SP in the 2004 general elections. The BJP and Congress had won three seats each. The Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) had emerged victorious on two seats while the BSP bagged one seat.

In the 2004 Lok Sabha polls, the SP and RLD had forged an electoral understanding as a result of which their formidable Jat-Muslim-Yadav combination literally swept the polls in this region. Together they had won 12 of the 18 seats.

Different scene

The scene is different in the 2009 polls. The RLD is contesting in alliance with the BJP. While it may be assured of a majority of the Jat votes, Muslims are not likely to support the RLD owing to its alliance with the BJP,  analysts point out.

The SP is already facing a revolt from its senior Muslim leaders like Azam Khan, who are against any truck with Kalyan Singh.

On the other hand Mulayam also stands to lose a substantial chunk of Muslim votes owing to his friendship with Kalyan Singh although he could transfer a majority of Lodhs (Kalyan Singh’s community) votes to the SP kitty. Lodhs are a deciding factor in as many as ten of the 18 seats. “Whether or not the Mulayam-Kalyan friendship will prove to be a success will depend on how much Lodh votes do the SP get,” observers say.