Critical election

In a couple of days from now, Afghanistan will go to vote in its third presidential election.

 This is a crucial election for several reasons. For one, it is the first democratic transfer of power in Afghanistan’s history. All previous elections in the war-torn country were marred by ballot stuffing, vote buying and voter intimidation. This touched unprecedented levels in the 2009 presidential election that saw Hamid Karzai getting re-elected. The rigged election diminished his presidency. Reports suggest that the upcoming presidential election too may be manipulated. This is a pity as Afghanistan has made gains, albeit small, in its democratic transformation.

 More importantly, the country is at a critical turning point. The NATO-led troops deployed in the country since 2002 will pull out end-December. If the new president lacks legitimacy, his capacity to steer Afghanistan through a turbulent transition will be crippled. The three front-runners in the fray are former foreign ministers Abdullah Abdullah and Zalmay Rassoul, and former finance minister Ashraf Ghani. They command about the same amount of support; so a run-off vote is likely. With the final result expected several months from now, speculation and rumour will mount, adding to uncertainty in the coming weeks and months. Although the Taliban is not contesting, it is an important actor in the election. It has called for a boycott of the polls and will step up its intimidation to prevent Afghans from voting on April 6. A strong turnout is essential to signal Afghan rejection of the Taliban’s undemocratic outlook.

Amid the deep pessimism that hangs over the presidential election, there are some rays of hope. Since the last presidential election, a string of measures have been put in place to make vote-rigging difficult. It is possible therefore that the upcoming vote, while being tainted, may not be entirely discredited as was the 2009 election. Public awareness of democratic rights too is said to have grown remarkably since the last election. It will be interesting to see whether ethnic identity decides how people vote. It is possible that in the cities, an Afghan identity may trump an ethnic one. 

Thousands of local and international observers are monitoring the vote. It is likely that in their rush to settle scores with Karzai, countries like the US, who have an axe to grind with him, may seek to discredit the election. They must avoid making snap judgements. The election is not about Karzai and hence undue criticism of the process must be avoided.