<p>With a major faction under the leadership of Khalid Mehsud breaking away, the Tehereek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has suffered a crippling blow. <br /><br />Since its founding in 2007, the TTP posed an enormous challenge to the Pakistani state. <br /><br />Successive Pakistani governments and the military were at a loss, even at loggerheads with each other over how to deal with the TTP. US drone strikes in the tribal heartlands did undermine the TTP’s capacity. <br /><br />Besides its founder leader Baitullah Mehsud and his successor Hakimullah Mehsud, hundreds of fighters were eliminated in the drone attacks. Still it remained a force to reckon with.<br /><br /> This may have changed with the recent split. The breakaway faction consists of the powerful Mehsuds, a tribe that has given the TTP most of its leaders and foot soldiers. <br /><br />Indeed, it is said that around 75 per cent of the TTP’s fighters belong to the Mehsud tribe. Their exit will leave the TTP weaker.<br /><br />However, the split in the TTP, even if it results in the rump’s demise, is hardly reason for Pakistan to celebrate. </p>.<p>Khalid Mehsud has announced the formation of his own group called Tehrik Taliban South Waziristan. This could complicate the government’s efforts to negotiate an end to the conflict. <br /><br />For one, which of the two, the rump TTP or Mehsud's group, will the government negotiate with? <br /><br />It is possible that neither Fazlullah nor Mehsud will want to talk to the government as they will be anxious to outdo each other in their hawkishness. </p>.<p>Thus prime minister Nawaz Sharif’s peace talks, which have sputtered along for some months now, may grind to a halt. <br /><br />Rather than taking sides in the fratricidal fighting, his government should sit back for a while and allow the dust to settle down before reviving the talks process.<br /><br />Where the al-Qaeda, the Haqqani Network, the Afghan Taliban and other outfits stand in the Fazlullah-Mehsud rift is unclear at the moment as is the impact of the TTP’s split on the insurgency in Afghanistan. <br /><br />A major realignment of these armed outfits is on the cards. What is certain, however, is a sharp spurt in violence. Fighting between the TTP’s factions, which has escalated in recent weeks, will continue.<br /><br /> Besides, both Fazlullah and Mehsud could step up attacks against the Pakistani state and the people as they seek to assert their power and presence.<br /></p>
<p>With a major faction under the leadership of Khalid Mehsud breaking away, the Tehereek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has suffered a crippling blow. <br /><br />Since its founding in 2007, the TTP posed an enormous challenge to the Pakistani state. <br /><br />Successive Pakistani governments and the military were at a loss, even at loggerheads with each other over how to deal with the TTP. US drone strikes in the tribal heartlands did undermine the TTP’s capacity. <br /><br />Besides its founder leader Baitullah Mehsud and his successor Hakimullah Mehsud, hundreds of fighters were eliminated in the drone attacks. Still it remained a force to reckon with.<br /><br /> This may have changed with the recent split. The breakaway faction consists of the powerful Mehsuds, a tribe that has given the TTP most of its leaders and foot soldiers. <br /><br />Indeed, it is said that around 75 per cent of the TTP’s fighters belong to the Mehsud tribe. Their exit will leave the TTP weaker.<br /><br />However, the split in the TTP, even if it results in the rump’s demise, is hardly reason for Pakistan to celebrate. </p>.<p>Khalid Mehsud has announced the formation of his own group called Tehrik Taliban South Waziristan. This could complicate the government’s efforts to negotiate an end to the conflict. <br /><br />For one, which of the two, the rump TTP or Mehsud's group, will the government negotiate with? <br /><br />It is possible that neither Fazlullah nor Mehsud will want to talk to the government as they will be anxious to outdo each other in their hawkishness. </p>.<p>Thus prime minister Nawaz Sharif’s peace talks, which have sputtered along for some months now, may grind to a halt. <br /><br />Rather than taking sides in the fratricidal fighting, his government should sit back for a while and allow the dust to settle down before reviving the talks process.<br /><br />Where the al-Qaeda, the Haqqani Network, the Afghan Taliban and other outfits stand in the Fazlullah-Mehsud rift is unclear at the moment as is the impact of the TTP’s split on the insurgency in Afghanistan. <br /><br />A major realignment of these armed outfits is on the cards. What is certain, however, is a sharp spurt in violence. Fighting between the TTP’s factions, which has escalated in recent weeks, will continue.<br /><br /> Besides, both Fazlullah and Mehsud could step up attacks against the Pakistani state and the people as they seek to assert their power and presence.<br /></p>
