Saudi Arabia is seldom in the news for domestic political developments, except for the discussion revolving around succession. However, in the 100-odd days since King Salman assumed the reins of the world’s largest oil exporting country, there has been a ‘political earthquake’ in the kingdom. This is likely to influence not just the country, but the Gulf and Arab regions and global affairs as well.
In a series of many firsts, King Salman bin Abdulaziz replaced his younger half-brother, Muqrin, as crown prince with his nephew, Mohammed bin Nayef. This marks a generational shift in the country’s leadership. For the first time, a grandson (not son) of the founder of the country is now the crown prince. Moreover, by naming his own son, Mohammed bin Salman, as the deputy crown prince (and defence minister), the country’s reins would remain with the younger royals.
King Salman also replaced foreign minister Saud Al Faisal, who had served in the post since 1975, with the ‘younger’ Saudi Ambassador to the United States, Adel Al Jubeir. This is also the first time that the kingdom has a non-royal foreign minister. In another significant change, the king separated the oil ministry from the state-owned oil company, Aramco, which perhaps sets the stage for the eventual replacement of Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources Ali Al Naimi, who took charge in 1995.
The political shake-up well and truly began within days of the new king assuming office in late January. Clearing the deck for Mohammed bin Nayef and Mohammed bin Salman, the king replaced King Abdullah’s two sons – Princes Mishaal and Turki – as governors of Mecca and Riyadh. Another son, Prince Mitab, however, retained his position as commander of the Saudi National Guard.
All these changes signal several factors. First, the appointment of young leaders puts to rest speculation about who will succeed King Salman. This assures stability both in domestic politics and international oil dynamics.
The new appointments at the top bring back the Sudairi clan to the centre of the power structure. King Abdulaziz’s seven sons from Hassa bint Ahmed Al Sudairi have been the most influential within the royal family. King Abdullah was the lone non-Sudairi at the helm. The top three in the current dispensation are Sudairis again.
Interestingly, it was stressed that the changes have been approved by a majority in the Allegiance Council – a committee constituted by King Abdullah to encourage consultation on succession issues and made up of sons and grandsons of the kingdom’s founding leader.
Moreover, in a veiled reference to the link between the local political and international oil price scenarios, the oil minister said: “The royal decrees come in the national interest and impel it toward further growth and prosperity and progress and stability. This political stability in the kingdom will positively reflect on its economic growth, and on stability of world oil markets.”
Second, a new generation of security-focused leaders in the line of succession serves as an opportunity to deal with terror related issues and recalibrate ties with the perceived stabiliser and destabiliser in the region – the United States and Iran respectively – for good or for worse.
The 55-year-old crown prince, also the interior minister, is famous for countering Al Qaeda about a decade ago after leading a four-year counterterrorism campaign. During this period, he survived several assassination attempts. Further, both the crown prince and foreign minister are US educated, US friendly and well versed in US political intricacies.
Third, it strengthens intra-GCC and Arab relations in the wake of the post-Arab uprising chaos in Egypt, Syria, Libya and Yemen, as well as possible empowerment of Iran if an agreement on the nuclear conundrum comes to fruition with the P5+1 powers later this year. This has been termed as the “consolidation of a new Arab political order”.
Fresh impetus
Even before the reshuffle, Riyadh had sought to give fresh impetus to its more than a decade-old policy of regional solutions to regional policies and suggested that it would no longer rely just on Washington for defence. This was particularly evident in its airstrikes against Al Houthis in Yemen, ignoring Washington’s counsel against military intervention.
Saudi Ambassador to Britain Prince Mohammed bin Nawaf, who referred to the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen as a model for future joint Arab action, said: “We want an Arab world free of any outside interference...We can deal with our own problems.”
In the wake of US hesitation to tackle issues related to Syria and terror outfit, the Islamic State head on, the kingdom adopted a proactive and assertive foreign policy. This may acquire clarity and dynamism after the meeting between US and GCC leaders in Camp David later this month. But the fact that a new generation of leaders has assumed power or will do so in the near future in all the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries means that the future of GCC-Iran ties is heading into choppy waters.
Finally, on a positive note, the Saudi reshuffle is likely to highlight the priorities of the youth. This augurs well for issues related to development, education, employment and healthcare, which are their main concerns.
(The writer is a Dubai-based political analyst, author and honorary fellow of the University of Exeter)