JOIN USDissidence rules in Saudi ruling family
Eleven months after Saudi King Salman began his reign, there has been unprecedented dissidence within the ruling family as well as major policy changes.
After serving as governor of Riyadh and crown prince, Salman - the last son of the kingdom's founder Abdel Aziz ibn Saud to become king - ascended to the throne on the death of his half brother, Abdullah.
To secure the succession, Salman, 79, appointed his nephew Muhammad bin Nayef, 56, crown prince and his favourite son, Muhammad bin Sultan, 27-30, deputy crown prince. These choices were controversial for several reasons.
The king skipped over other members of his generation to place first and second in line Abdel Aziz' grandsons.
Like the king, both belong to the Sudairi branch of the ruling family, grandsons of Abdel Aziz and his wife Hasa al-Sudairi, whose seven sons had been alternating in the kingship with sons of other wives. This has created tension with scores of non-Sudairi family members.
Several senior princes reject the line up, favouring Prince Ahmed bin Abdel-Aziz, who is one of the founder's 11 surviving sons.
An unidentified prince has published an open letter calling for Salman's overthrow and the enthronement of Prince Ahmed who is considered a reformist. Another potential candidate to replace Salman is Prince Muqrin, the former crown prince who was removed from this post in April.
The dissidents reject, in particular, young and inexperienced Muhammad bin Sultan who was appointed defence minister as well as overseer of the kingdom's top economic council, oil policy and foreign affairs.
According to the Washington think tank, The Brookings Institution the arrogant and ruthless prince's "unbridled ambition has alienated fellow princes."
Germany’s foreign intelligence agency (BND) observed that he could threaten his country's ties with regional allies while trying to strengthen his grip on the succession and asserting Saudi Arabia's leading role in the Arab world.
"The previous cautious diplomatic stance of older leaders within the royal family is being replaced by a new impulsive policy of intervention," stated BND, citing Saudi military involvement in Syria through insurgent proxies and directly Yemen as well as political interference in Lebanon, Bahrain, and Iraq.
Sunni Saudi Arabia is "prepared to take unprecedented military, financial and political risks to avoid falling behind in regional politics" in the competition for influence with rival Shia Iran.
The Yemen war has stalemated while Saudi proxies in Syria are under pressure to ceasefire in the conflict with the government and join the battle against Islamic State (IS) and al-Qaeda's Jabhat al-Nusra, regarded by the international community as terrorist factions. However, Riyadh has given priority to the campaign to overthrow Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and is reluctant to change course.
The rivalry with Tehran has led Riyadh to pump enough oil to keep the price low, crippling the Iranian economy but eliciting criticism from other oil producers. This policy risks a 22 per cent deficit this year and the depletion of Saudi cash reserves within five years since the kingdom continues lavish spending on salaries, subventions, and projects as well as luxurious living for royals.
Reform programme
On the positive side, Salman has replaced princely ministers with career civil servants holding advanced degrees from Western universities and Muhammad bin Salman has designed a reform programme.
He seeks to diversify the economy which depends on oil revenues that provide 80-85 per cent of government revenue, reduce wastage accounting for 30 per cent of the budget, increase investment in infrastructure and encourage foreign participation. The king has met world leaders, including Indian Prime Minister Nerendra Modi, and dispatched his son to world capitals to boost external relations.
King Salman has, however, sided with conservatives on key domestic issues. He has restored the ascendancy of the puritan clerical establishment; revived the religious police, sidelined under his predecessor; cracked down on the Shia minority, and refused to release political prisoners.
More than 150 death sentences have been carried out and imposed on activist Shia cleric Nimr al-Nimr, his nephew, Ali al-Nimr, and Palestinian poet Ashraf Fayadh, who is accused of apostasy. While women have gained the right to vote and stand in local elections, they remain under the supervision of male relatives, must dress according to tradition, and cannot drive cars.
Salman and his successors cannot consider the demand of US President Barack Obama and other world leaders to "root out misguided ideas that lead of radicalisation" of Muslims and prompt them to join IS and other jihadi groups.
Saudi religious ideology is based on 18th century ultra-conservative teachings held by 21st century clerics partnering the ruling family.