Likely reverses for Congress

I have no tears to shed over the likely reverses of the Congress in most of five assembly elections—Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Puducherry. The party must be feeling utterly shocked and should be searching for reasons. But it has not yet come out from the illusion that its main strength is the dynasty.

So obsessed is it with this self-belief that the posters the party had put up for the polls carried the picture of Robert Vadra, Congress president Sonia Gandhi’s son-in-law, who has been found mixed up with the land deals going back to the time when the Congress ruled Haryana.

The aspect which disturbs me the most is the success of the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP). It is gaining ground. Indeed, in each of the five states, the BJP may increase its vote share. This means that its credibility is increasing, not decreasing. This should give alarming signals because it conveys that Hindutva, the death knell for secularism, is gaining strength.

Had the BJP been on its own, it would have sooner or later fallen into the pattern other political parties follow. But the BJP is supervised by the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) which wants to convert the pluralistic India into a Hindu rashtra.

Despite this trait, which goes against the grain of secularism, the BJP is marching ahead. It is not that the Indians, tolerant by nature, are losing their basic quality. It is because the people are sick of corruption in every sphere of government activity and they do not find any scams or scandals tumbling out of the BJP.

Manmohan Singh was the best face the Congress had. Yet, the scandals like the Commonwealth Games and coal block scam took place in his regime. In fact, it looks as if he gave the best cover the party could have to indulge in rampant corruption. There are allegations that the party leadership collected money to oil the party machinery and the elections which the party fought.

True, the Congress is becoming relevant because of the BJP’s parochialism. But the party’s vice-president Rahul Gandhi does not have the stature which Prime Minister Narendra Modi enjoys. Therefore, if people were to be given a choice in the next Lok Sabha election between Modi and Rahul, Modi may win hands down.

There is still three years’ time for the Lok Sabha polls. The non-BJP and non-Congress parties can cobble together some sort of an agreement whereby they do not split their votes. They will have to decide upon the leader because people in India vote for the would-be prime minister although we do not follow the presidential form of government. Whether or not the latter would be more suited to us is another kind of a debate.

Question of “outsiders”
One thing which is indeed concerting is the inroads that the BJP has made in Assam. But this is primarily because of the migration of people from across the border which was encouraged by the Congress itself.

The then Congress leader, Fakruddin Ali Ahmed, who later became the President, would openly say that they won the election with the votes of ‘Ali and coolie.’ What he meant by Ali was Muslims. The labour from Bihar was described as coolie.

If Assam were to reopen the question of “outsiders,” then thousands of people would come under this category. We have gone over this problem earlier and have uprooted and deported many people on this ground. When only Muslims are ousted and no Hindu is even questioned, the problem takes a communal turn. Should India, claiming to be a pluralistic and democratic polity be doing so? And if it does so, should the society claim to be secular?

Since the Congress does not count much, at least for the time being, which party is capable of leading the fight against communalism is the question that stares at the face of the society.

There is no doubt that the leftist forces are a committed lot on this point. But then they do not sell any more. Even after more than 65 years, when the first Communist government was established under Communist ideologue EMS Namboodiripad in Kerala, the party has made no headway.

It is true that the magic of Narendra Modi, although less than what it was before, is still captivating. His future depends on the jobs he provides and how far he is able to raise the standard of living in the country. True, the economic betterment can give a cover to the fundamentalists. But the development would have to be real, not a mere slogan as is the case so far.

Even fundamentalism would have to be toned down. Modi realises that and therefore has not taken any policy decision which indicates that the country has swerved from the path of secularism. His main problem is the RSS which wants to saffronise the country as much as it can in the next three years when Modi’s five-year tenure ends. No doubt, Modi would want to come back. But if by then the RSS had shown its true fangs, the BJP’s return would be difficult.

The pattern of voting and the places where the BJP may win, would indeed show that the party would uproot a well-entrenched Congress. What it means in real terms is not the success of the BJP’s ideology but people’s exasperation over corruption in the Congress. If Modi or the RSS were to learn this lesson, the BJP would become more and more relevant as the time goes by.