Polarised Bangkok

The conflict between Thailand’s Red and Yellow Shirts that seemed to have died down for a while has erupted once again with the Red Shirts ie supporters of former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra taking to the streets of Bangkok. For almost a week now, around 1,00,000 Red Shirts — their formal name is the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship — have marched in demonstrations demanding the resignation of prime minister Abhisit Vejajjiva and fresh elections. Thailand has been in a state of acute political turmoil for several years now. Back in 2006, the Yellow Shirts or the Peoples Alliance for Democracy launched mass protests to oust Thaksin, then Thailand’s Prime Minister. A few months later, Thaksin was ousted in a military coup but he stood vindicated a year later when his allies won general elections. The verdict was not accepted by the Yellow Shirts who persisted with protests to force the government to step down. They succeeded when the Thaksin-allied government fell in November 2008. While Abhisit has been in power since then, the Red Shirts have not accepted the legitimacy of his government and have been protesting to oust it.

The deep political polarisation in Thailand is worrying. On the face of it, the conflict is one between Thaksin supporters and the rest of the population. Indeed, Thaksin is the key personality around whom the confrontation revolves. Although he lives in exile, his political influence in Thailand is considerable, evident from the large number of people showing up at the Red Shirt rallies. But this is not just about Thaksin. The polarisation reflects an urban-rural divide too. Thaksin has enjoyed huge popularity among rural Thais as his policies while prime minister improved their living conditions.

More importantly this seems to be a conflict between the forces of democracy and those opposed to it. The hand of the military was evident in Abhisits rise to power. It would be more appropriate to describe the polarisation as one between a loose grouping of royalists, the military, businessmen and the urban middle class on the one hand and rural Thais, students and democrats on the other. The military is backing the former and it will not hesitate to use extreme force to protect its interests. Should the protests persist, Thailand could descend into bloodshed.