<p> After 9/11, I was among those hailing the Turkish model as the antidote to ‘Bin Ladenism’. Indeed, the last time I visited Turkey in 2005, my discussions with officials were all about Turkey’s efforts to join the European Union. That is why it is quite shocking to come back today and find Turkey’s Islamist government seemingly focused not on joining the EU but the Arab League — no, scratch that, on joining the Hamas-Hezbollah-Iran resistance front against Israel.<br /><br />Now how did that happen? <br />A series of vacuums that emerged in and around Turkey in the last few years have drawn Turkey’s Islamist government — led by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party — away from its balance point between East and West. Turkey’s balancing role has been one of the most important, quiet, stabilisers in world politics. You only notice it when it is gone. Being in Istanbul convinces me that we could be on our way to losing it if all these vacuums get filled in the wrong ways.<br /><br />EU’s rejection<br /><br />The first vacuum comes courtesy of the EU. After a decade of telling the Turks that if they wanted EU membership they had to reform their laws, economy, minority rights and civilian-military relations the EU leadership has now said to Turkey: “Oh, you mean nobody told you? We’re a Christian club. No Muslims allowed.” The EU’s rejection has been a key factor prompting Turkey to move closer to Iran and the Arab world.<br /><br />But as Turkey started looking more South, it found another vacuum — no leadership in the Arab-Muslim world. Egypt is adrift. Saudi Arabia is asleep. Syria is too small. Iraq is too fragile. Erdogan discovered that by taking a hard line against Israel’s blockade of Hamas-led Gaza — and quietly supporting the Turkish-led flotilla to break that blockade, during which eight Turks were killed — Turkey could vastly increase its influence on the Arab street and in the Arab markets. Indeed, Erdogan today is the most popular leader in the Arab world. He is praising Hamas instead of the more responsible Palestinian Authority in the West Bank, which is actually building the foundations of a Palestinian state.<br /><br />Israel’s failure to apply its creativity to solving the Palestinian problem is another dangerous vacuum. But it is very troubling when Erdogan decries Israelis as killers and, at the same time, warmly receives in Ankara Sudan’s president, Omar Hassan al-Bashir, who has been indicted by the International Criminal Court on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity for his role in the bloodshed in Darfur. Erdogan defended his reception of Bashir by saying: “It’s not possible for a Muslim to commit genocide”.<br /><br />Finally, there is a vacuum inside Turkey. The secular opposition parties have been in disarray most of the decade, the army has been cowed by wiretaps and the press has been increasingly intimidated into self-censorship because of government pressures. Erdogan lately has spoken with increasing vitriol about Israel in his public speeches to build up his domestic support. He regularly labels his critics as ‘Israel’s contractors’ and ‘Tel Aviv’s lawyers’.<br /><br />Sad. Erdogan is smart, charismatic and can be very pragmatic. I’d love to see him be the most popular leader on the Arab street, but not by being more radical than the Arab radicals and by catering to Hamas, but by being more of a democracy advocate than the undemocratic Arab leaders and mediating in a balanced way between all Palestinians and Israel. That is not where Erdogan is at, though, and it’s troubling. Maybe President Barack Obama should invite him for a weekend at Camp David to clear the air before US-Turkey relations get where they’re going — over a cliff....</p>
<p> After 9/11, I was among those hailing the Turkish model as the antidote to ‘Bin Ladenism’. Indeed, the last time I visited Turkey in 2005, my discussions with officials were all about Turkey’s efforts to join the European Union. That is why it is quite shocking to come back today and find Turkey’s Islamist government seemingly focused not on joining the EU but the Arab League — no, scratch that, on joining the Hamas-Hezbollah-Iran resistance front against Israel.<br /><br />Now how did that happen? <br />A series of vacuums that emerged in and around Turkey in the last few years have drawn Turkey’s Islamist government — led by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party — away from its balance point between East and West. Turkey’s balancing role has been one of the most important, quiet, stabilisers in world politics. You only notice it when it is gone. Being in Istanbul convinces me that we could be on our way to losing it if all these vacuums get filled in the wrong ways.<br /><br />EU’s rejection<br /><br />The first vacuum comes courtesy of the EU. After a decade of telling the Turks that if they wanted EU membership they had to reform their laws, economy, minority rights and civilian-military relations the EU leadership has now said to Turkey: “Oh, you mean nobody told you? We’re a Christian club. No Muslims allowed.” The EU’s rejection has been a key factor prompting Turkey to move closer to Iran and the Arab world.<br /><br />But as Turkey started looking more South, it found another vacuum — no leadership in the Arab-Muslim world. Egypt is adrift. Saudi Arabia is asleep. Syria is too small. Iraq is too fragile. Erdogan discovered that by taking a hard line against Israel’s blockade of Hamas-led Gaza — and quietly supporting the Turkish-led flotilla to break that blockade, during which eight Turks were killed — Turkey could vastly increase its influence on the Arab street and in the Arab markets. Indeed, Erdogan today is the most popular leader in the Arab world. He is praising Hamas instead of the more responsible Palestinian Authority in the West Bank, which is actually building the foundations of a Palestinian state.<br /><br />Israel’s failure to apply its creativity to solving the Palestinian problem is another dangerous vacuum. But it is very troubling when Erdogan decries Israelis as killers and, at the same time, warmly receives in Ankara Sudan’s president, Omar Hassan al-Bashir, who has been indicted by the International Criminal Court on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity for his role in the bloodshed in Darfur. Erdogan defended his reception of Bashir by saying: “It’s not possible for a Muslim to commit genocide”.<br /><br />Finally, there is a vacuum inside Turkey. The secular opposition parties have been in disarray most of the decade, the army has been cowed by wiretaps and the press has been increasingly intimidated into self-censorship because of government pressures. Erdogan lately has spoken with increasing vitriol about Israel in his public speeches to build up his domestic support. He regularly labels his critics as ‘Israel’s contractors’ and ‘Tel Aviv’s lawyers’.<br /><br />Sad. Erdogan is smart, charismatic and can be very pragmatic. I’d love to see him be the most popular leader on the Arab street, but not by being more radical than the Arab radicals and by catering to Hamas, but by being more of a democracy advocate than the undemocratic Arab leaders and mediating in a balanced way between all Palestinians and Israel. That is not where Erdogan is at, though, and it’s troubling. Maybe President Barack Obama should invite him for a weekend at Camp David to clear the air before US-Turkey relations get where they’re going — over a cliff....</p>