Parties focus on swing seats to sway verdict in their favour in poll-bound Karnataka

Akhanda Srinivasamurthy (third from left) had won from Pulakeshinagar with the highest margin in the 2018 elections. He is seen in this file photo with Byrathi Suresh, who won from Hebbal, and his supporters. Credit: DH Photo

There were 74 constituencies where the margin of victory was less than 10,000 votes in the elections held five years ago, making these the ‘swing’ seats eyed by all parties, particularly BJP and Congress.

The 2018 elections threw up some surprising results.

Of the 74 segments where the margin was under 10,000 votes, Congress won 37, BJP 27 and JD(S) 10.

Break the numbers up further and one will find that there were five constituencies where the winning margin was less than 1,000 votes - Maski (213), Pavagada (409), Hirekerur (555), Kundgol (634) and Aland (697).

Further, there were 24 seats that were won or lost with a margin of less than 5,000 votes. Congress won 18 seats in this bracket.

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“Of the three parties, Congress seems more vulnerable in this election. It has 18 seats with a margin of less than 5,000 votes, of which four have a margin of less than 1,000 votes,” said Venkatesh Thogarighatta, CEO of political consulting firm Catribil Consulting.

Karnataka Congress working president Saleem Ahmed insisted that his party’s candidates will improve their margins this time.

Citing the example of Sindhanur where Hampanagouda Badarli lost to the JD(S) candidate by 1,597 votes, Ahmed said the party will improve its margin this time.

“All our MLAs have worked well in the last five years irrespective of having won with a low margin. Their margins will increase this time. Also, the BJP government discriminated by not releasing adequate funds to Congress-held constituencies,” Ahmed told DH.

The BJP did better than Congress in terms of registering thumping victories.

Of the 104 seats BJP won in 2018, as many as 77 of them saw saffron candidates win with a margin of more than 10,000 votes. The biggest victory margin for the BJP was in Belgaum Dakshin (58,692 votes).

For Congress, 42 out of the 79 seats were won with a margin of more than 10,000 votes. The biggest winner was Akhanda Srinivasamurthy in Pulakeshinagar (81,626 votes).

This is also problematic for BJP. The big wins contributed to its 36.22% vote share. “BJP has 40 seats with a victory margin of more than 20,000 votes, which boosts its vote share but not seat share,” Venkatesh said, adding that high victory margins are “unproductive and inefficient”.

BJP spokesperson Vijay Prasad told DH that the party has worked on seats where it lost by narrow margins.

“We’ve taken care of those seats by putting our organisational skills there. Another factor this time is that we’ve fielded 72 new faces, which will help us increase our margins,” he said.