Bihar Assembly Elections 2025 | Should Tejashwi worry as Prashant Kishor sets sights on Lalu's family bastion of Raghopur?

Prashant Kishor is quickly becoming a force to be reckoned with in the political landscape of Bihar. The Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) founder launched his assembly election campaign from Raghopur constituency, the home turf of Lalu family.

Though there is still suspense over whether Kishor will fight the elections from Raghopur seat, the former poll strategist has dropped enough hints.

The Raghopur seat, renowned for giving two chief ministers (Lalu Prasad Yadav and his wife Rabri Devi) and one deputy CM (Tejashwi Yadav) to Bihar, was not always the coveted seat. It caught everyone's eye in 1995 — after Lalu Prasad Yadav decided to leave the Sonpur constituency and contested polls from Yadav-dominated Raghopur on Janata Dal ticket — and has since remained in the spotlight.

Prior to 1995 no single party held the seat for more than 5 years.

The reason why Lalu switched seats is largely attributed to the significant Yadav population of Raghopur. Yadavs make up for nearly 31 per cent of the constituency's population.

Since then, the Yadav family has held the constituency for almost two decades barring a small gap from 2010 to 2015 when Janata Dal (United) candidate Satish Kumar Yadav defeated Rabri Devi. While Lalu has won from the seat twice (1995 and 2000), his wife Rabri won in 2005 and from 2015, their son Tejashwi Yadav has held the seat. If Tejashwi wins the polls this year, it would be a hat-trick for him.

Apart from Yadavs, RJD also enjoys support from Scheduled Caste (SC) and Muslim voters of the constituency.

Prashant Kishor stirs the pot

The discussions around the seat and its fate grew louder when Prashant Kishor "predicted" that Tejashwi Yadav would lose the seat this time, just like Congress leader Rahul Gandhi lost the Amethi seat — held by the Congress party for decades — six years ago.

The people of the constituency are largely cut off from rest of the Bihar, especially during a six month stretch every year when the Ganga is on the swell. Being one of the most flood-prone areas of Bihar, the people of Raghopur are looking for basic amenities and infrastructure rather than big promises of "government job for household" — something the Tejashwi has promised.

Formed in 1951, the constituency is one of the six assembly segments of the Hajipur Lok Sabha seat in Vaishali district. Though geographically, Raghopur is much closer to Patna than Vaishali’s district headquarters, Hajipur, for a long time the locals had to rely on country-made boats to reach Patna after crossing the Ganges. Things improved after the inauguration of six-lane, cable-stayed Kacchi Dargah-Bidupur Bridge in June this year by the Nitish Kumar government.

In the 2020 Assembly polls, Tejashwi managed to win the seat by a margin of over 38,000 votes. He secured 48.74 per cent of the total votes, a comfortable win which is likely this year as well. However, Raghopur can become one of the most high-profile contests in recent years if Prashant Kishor indeed jumps into the fray from the seat.

Raghopur will go to polls in the first phase on November 6, and the results will be declared in November 14.