Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Lacking emotive issues, third phase in Bihar to see NDA struggling to retain seats

Ayodhya issue has failed to cut much ice, say the voting trends in the first 2 phases

Patna: It’s an old saying: “Rome Pope ka, Madhepura Gope ka.” Gope is in reference to Yadavs.

Madhepura is one Lok Sabha constituency in this part of the cow-belt from where only Yadavs have won in the last six decades. So much so that veteran socialist Sharad Yadav, the late former Union minister, who originally hailed from Jabalpur in Madhya Pradesh, won from Madhepura four times. He lost from here four times also. Out of which, he was humbled twice by his friend-turned-foe-turned-friend Lalu Prasad. Even Pappu Yadav has won from here twice, once even from behind the bars.

Madhepura is one of the five Lok Sabha constituencies which will go to polls on Tuesday in the third phase of elections in Bihar. The other four are: Jhanjharpur, Supaul, Araria and Khagaria. Interestingly, all these five seats were won by the NDA in the 2019 polls, which had emotive issues like Pulwama and Balakot and which, in turn, turned the tide in favour of the saffron brigade.

However, it is quite different in 2024. In the absence of any emotive issues, it’s a lacklustre election where the outgoing MPs of the ruling dispensation have nothing much to boast of other than reminding the voters how Prime Minister Narendra Modi ensured construction of the Ram temple. But the issue of Ayodhya has failed to cut much ice, if the voting trend in the first two phases of polls is an indication.

No wonder, for the first time in any election Modi raked up the Godhra incident, reminding the voters how Lalu Prasad, as Union Railway Minister in the UPA-I regime, made an unsuccessful attempt to "shield" those who were involved in the train-burning incident.

"I was shocked listening to Modi’s speech. It was a classic example of how a Prime Minister can stoop so low to polarise the voters by raking up a two-decade-old incident which is actually a blot on modern history,” says RJD national vice-president Shivanand Tiwary.

Caste arithmetic

Political scientists feel the more Modi speaks in Bihar, the more Muslims will rally around Mahagatbandhan.

"The 17% Muslims and 12% Yadavs have stood by the Mahagatbandhan like a rock. Add to it the 3% Mallahs (fishermen/boatmen). And if you add to it the vote base of Congress and Left, it would come to around 40% votes. The NDA, too, is on a strong footing. It has all the upper castes — Bhumihars, Brahmins, Rajputs and Kayasthas — rooting for Modi. Besides, the numerically-strong OBCs like Vaishyas and Nitish's fellow castemen Kurmi/Kushwahas are also solidly with the NDA. Together, whichever combination — NDA or I.N.D.I.A. — manages to poll around 40 per cent of the votes, the alliance will emerge victorious,” opined noted social scientist Nalin Verma.