Target 370: More than just numbers in Parliament

Festering leadership issues at the helm of the BJP and a third consecutive victory in Gujarat in December 2012 propelled Narendra Modi to the national stage ahead of the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. Much before he was anointed BJP’s PM candidate, Modi clinched the argument with the cadre at the party national council at Delhi’s Talkatora Stadium in March 2013.

Presenting a fait accompli to the compatriots on stage, the then Gujarat chief minister told the audience “irrespective of what we do, the country has chosen its path.”

“Hum chalein, na chalein; hum karein, na karein, desh chal pada hei”

Eleven years on, the venue for the party national council has shifted to the newly constructed state-of-the-art convention centre, Bharat Mandapam. Addressing more than 11,500 council delegates drawn from across the country last week, Modi, now completing two terms in office, sets a new target to the attendees — 370 Lok Sabha seats for the BJP and 400 for the NDA.

“Winning 370 seats would be a tribute to party idealogue Dr Syama Prasad Mookerjee,” Modi extolled the council.

The reference to number 370 has multiple interpretations and connotations.

The number has a certain resonance and ring with the BJP cadre. It is a reiteration of the reading down of Article 370, a legislative intervention piloted by the Modi government.

The benchmark is a call to militate against a la India Shining, a sense of economic optimism that resulted in a surprising slump in 2004. 

Target 370 is also a proverbial carrot dangled before the adherents. The number signifies a two-thirds majority that may well be necessary to address issues that require legislative interventions with a larger mandate.

“By referring to 370, the PM is trying to create a recall of a core ideological issue that the government was able to implement with a simple majority of 303 seats in the 17th Lok Sabha,” says a council member who attended the two-day session.

Number crunching

But electoral battles are not merely about creating a chemistry with the workers and voters. The battle for the ballot is as much about arithmetic and numbers.

More than 96 crore voters across the country will be eligible to vote in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls for which the Election Commission will set up approximately 12 lakh polling booths.

At the Delhi convention, BJP president JP Nadda claimed “BJP has successfully extended its reach to over 8.4 lakh booths and there are plans to further expand to 10 lakh booths soon.”

With Modi exhorting workers to strive to get 370 more votes in each booth vis-à-vis the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the party is striving to accumulate 370x10,00,000 or 37 crore more votes this time around from the 10 lakh booths where it has up-and-running booth management committees. 

In 2019, the BJP won 303 seats bagging close to 23 crore or nearly 37% of the total votes polled. The target has been scaled up to 370 plus seats in the Lok Sabha, by adding 370 more votes in each polling booth.

“Even with a 50% success rate in adding 370 votes in each polling booth, we can easily achieve the target,” says a BJP national office bearer from Bihar who did not want to be named.

A mobilisation of this scale requires more than mere slogans. It requires meticulous planning at the booth level and hyper-local deployment on an unprecedented scale.

Booth management

Effective booth management has been one of the hallmarks of the new BJP under Shah and Modi. Using both online and offline affordances, the party has optimised the turnout of its support base on the polling day.

The Gujarat model, replicated in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh Assembly polls last year, is a case in point.

A typical booth committee of the BJP comprises 21 members. This includes people drawn from diverse social and demographic backgrounds including senior citizens, women, youth, and beneficiaries of the centrally sponsored schemes.

Another key aspect of BJP’s booth management has been the effective use of Booth Level Agents or BLA. The concept was introduced by the Election Commission for the preparation and revision of electoral rolls.

“No matter how well prepared one is, it all comes down to how one manages a booth on the day of voting. Whether you can bring your voters to the polling station is critical,” says a consultant who worked closely with the BJP in Chhattisgarh Assembly elections.

In the Madhya Pradesh elections last year, the BJP mapped over 62,000 polling booths to establish an online connection with its booth management teams. The party tasked its workers to increase its vote share by 10% in every booth to 51%.

Despite two decades of anti-incumbency, the BJP stunned Congress by bagging more than 48% of the popular votes.

“This time we may end up winning all seats in MP and Chhattisgarh. We are strongly placed even in UP’s Mainpuri, the one seat which the BJP has failed to win even once since Independence,” says Vijay Pathak, BJP MLC from UP, who has been travelling the two central states for grassroots mobilisation.  

Geographic limitations

In a multi-party first-past-the-post system, an increase in vote share need not necessarily translate into seat gains unless the increment is evenly spread across the polity. With a 90% strike rate, the BJP has already peaked in a vast swathe extending from Karnataka to Jammu and Gujarat to Assam.

Having attained near saturation in northern, central, and western states, where will the BJP mop up an extra 67 seats to cross the target set by the Prime Minister?

More votes in the BJP strongholds can only increase the victory margin and not seats.

The scope for improvement is maximum along the Coromandel coast but BJP’s march along this region has been impeded by strong push-back from regional satraps like Mamata Banerjee, Stalin, Jagan Mohan Reddy who have held on to their own.

This limitation explains the BJP’s decision to go on an alliance shopping spree ahead of the polls.  

During the last session of the 17th Lok Sabha, a Rajya Sabha MP from Uttar Pradesh in a conversation with an Opposition leader in the Central Hall claimed his party was comfortably placed ahead of the general elections.

“But the target has now been scaled up to 370. And once the Prime Minister has set the target, we will do everything to meet it,” he added.

Two days later, the BJP announced Bharat Ratna for the former PM Charan Singh. Within hours, Rashtriya Lok Dal leader and Charan Singh’s grandson Jayant Chaudhary, the Jat face of the I.N.D.I.A alliance in UP, performed a triple backflip to make a perfect landing on the other side of the fence.

Breaking barriers

To reach 370, the BJP needs to mop up every seat up for grabs. A Jayant Chaudhary in I.N.D.I.A alliance can wean away a few. Moreover, the shift, as in Bihar, impales the very idea of an aggregated Opposition unity at the national level.

From two seats in 1984 to 303 in 2019, BJP has come a long way in the last four decades. Leading a minority government under Vajpayee between 1998 and 2004, the party consolidated its position but could not proceed much with implementing its core ideological agenda due to coalition compulsions.

With a simple majority in 2014 and 2019, the BJP under Modi shifted gears to focus on expanding its social base while addressing the RSS’ doctrinal requirements.  

“BJP is seeking a strong mandate in 2024 so that it can bring about fundamental changes in the polity. For instance, it would want to ensure that the religious demography is not disturbed, and for doing that it requires this sort of legislative strength and popular support,” says Arun Anand, who has authored two books on the RSS.

No party in the history of Independent India has won a mandate with more than 50% of the popular vote share. Target 370, thus, is more than just about the numbers in parliament.