Explained | 'November revolution': The buzzword in Karnataka political circles

As the Congress-led government nears the halfway mark of its five-year term in November, speculation over a change of guard in Karnataka has intensified

Speculation over a transfer of power in Karnataka has intensified as the Congress-led government approaches the halfway mark of its five-year term in November.

The term "November revolution" is being used in recent political discourse to describe a potential leadership change in the State. November is when the government led by Siddaramaiah, who took charge on May 20, 2023, will complete 30 months.

There has been speculation within the State's political circles, especially within the ruling Congress, for some time now about the change of Chief Minister later this year.

Ever since the Congress formed the government in the State, there have been talks about a 'power-sharing agreement' between Siddaramaiah and Deputy Chief Minister D K Shivakumar based on a "rotational Chief Minister formula", according to which the latter will become the Chief Minister after two-and-a-half years of the government's term, but this has not been officially confirmed by the party.

Siddaramaiah, who has asserted that he will remain in the top post for five years, has dismissed the so-called ‘November Revolution’ claims, terming them baseless. “No such ‘kranti’ will ever happen”, he said on Monday in Bagalkot.

“The high command has its importance, but ultimately, it is the MLAs who have to give their consent. Therefore, both the support of MLAs and the blessings of the high command are essential to become the Chief Minister,” he said, stressing that the support of legislators is crucial for anyone aspiring to become the Chief Minister.

Countering him, Shivakumar, has asserted that the Chief Minister’s selection would be decided by the Congress high command and not based on the support one enjoys from legislators, essentially setting the terms for his plausible succession to power.

"No decision happens on numbers. Always, it’s the party high command that decides who should be where and till when. I know Congress. It doesn’t work (based on the support of MLAs),” Shivakumar said in an interview with a Kannada news channel.

Home Minister G Parameshwara, who is also an aspirant for the Chief Minister's post, has dismissed speculation over a change of guard in the State by saying, “Who said there will be a November revolution? I don’t know...”

The Opposition BJP, meanwhile, has been claiming that the power struggle within the Congress will lead to a change of Chief Minister soon.