Air India plane crash | Technical failure and bird hit could be causes, say experts

Mumbai: Human error, technical failure, bird hit, lack of proper maintenance,  sabotage and sudden extreme weather conditions are the common causes of aviation mishaps, according to pilots and experts, who said reasoning anything on the Dreamliner crash at this stage would be a guesswork unless the Black Box is deciphered. 

Though sabotage has not been ruled out by experts, they pointed out that panic must not be created without proper technical information on hand. 

Besides the flight log, maintenance schedules and previous manifest needs a closer analysis, they said.

However, they said that the possibility of technical issue in the airplane soon after the take off from the Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel International Airport (SVPIA), was much more than any other causes, given the videos that are currently available. 

From the initial reports, one thing is sure, that Captain Sumeet Sabharwal,  flying  with co-pilot First Officer Clive Kundar, who was commandeering the Boeing 787 Dreamliner,  issued the 'Mayday' call to the Air Traffic Control (ATC) soon after taking off from Ahmedabad for London. 

The Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) and Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau (AAIB), which functions under the Ministry of Civil Aviation (MoCA), has already launched the investigations into the worst-ever civil aviation disasters of India, in which all the 242 persons on board including the two pilots and 11-member flight crew are suspected to have died. 

“Bird hits can happen any time, around the airport or at high altitudes during the flight. It can lead to an engine seize. It can’t be completely ruled out at this stage, as the aircraft could be seen over a housing locality where there are chances of bird hits,” according to a pilot, who has extensive knowledge on a variety  of helicopters and fixed-wing aircraft.  “The bird can get sucked into the engine, it can damage the fan blades, cause engine failure,” he said. 

As far as weather over Ahmedabad and elsewhere in Gujarat during the day, they don't see any issue. “Weather was pretty okay,” they said, adding that updraft and downdraft does not seem to be the cause. 

“The aircraft went into flames and smoke only after a crash. Hence, a mid-air explosion is ruled out at this stage,” civil aviation experts said, adding that finer details need to be checked after collection of forensic evidence from the ground and debris of the airplane. 

“From multiple visuals available, it appeared that there was an issue in lift off. It was just sinking,” a veteran pilot said, adding that this happened at a time when there is full-thrust.

“The lift off did not happen properly, largely indicating that there  could be an engine issue. It nosedives and crashes on the top of a building,” a former pilot said pointing out that  the Dreamliner is a twin-engine aircraft.  

“It's a top-of-the-line airplane and both engines having issues raise eyebrows. But, we must admit that exact details are not available,” he pointed out.

Asked about human error, the experts said that at this stage it is difficult to say anything. 

The AAIB’s collection of evidence from the ground and  is going to be a very important thing besides checking on the records to build up the investigations.

"The safety checks, pre-flight checks need to be ascertained," they said, adding that whether there is any possible tampering also needs to be found out.

Power loss could be reason

Robert A Clifford, Founder and Senior Partner of Clifford Law Offices in Chicago and Lead Counsel in the crash of a Boeing 737 MAX8 crash in Ethiopia six years ago that killed all 157 on board, said, “Review of available video and eyewitness information indicate some form of power or flight control loss. The Indian government investigators should have flight data recorder and cockpit voice recorder information within a couple of days that will provide vital information to try to get to the bottom of this deadly tragedy.”