Brace for 2025: Basket full for political parties in new year

New Delhi: In the fiercely competitive national politics, where not an inch of space is conceded without reason, a front-row vacant seat in the 18th Lok Sabha is bound to raise eyebrows. The grapevine is that the BJP has reserved the spot for its next national president.

So, who will replace JP Nadda as the next party chief? Someone who is a member of the lower house of Parliament? The guessing game continues in Delhi as 2024 bids adieu and political parties turn a new chapter after a hectic year of electioneering that saw the return of coalition politics after Modi’s two consecutive terms in power with an absolute majority.

The whittled numbers in the Lok Sabha may impact the BJP's internal politics as well. In the Haryana and Maharashtra Assembly polls, the party’s ideological mentor, the RSS, demonstrated its heft. This may have a bearing on selecting key organisational and constitutional positions in Modi 3.0. Caste and regional considerations, however, will continue to influence the selection process.

Modi is running a coalition government for the first time. Victories in recent state polls have also brought electoral relief for the Prime Minister. Coalition management remains a challenge, which will be tested on two key legislations — the Waqf Bill and the proposed One Nation One Election law.

Support from the two key allies, TDP and JDU, will be critical for the passage of the Waqf Bill. For ONOE,  the government will need to strike a larger consensus in the Joint Parliamentary Committee to bring the Opposition on board as the legislation requires a two-thirds majority for passage.

And then, there is the pending decennial census, a statistical exercise that has assumed political overtones with the Opposition demanding caste count and a consequent lifting of a 50 per cent ceiling on reservations.

Interestingly, 2025 is also the year the RSS will celebrate its centenary year. The BJP's ideological fount is planning to hold nationwide events that will be flagged off at its annual general body meeting, Akhil Bhartiya Pratinidhi Sabha (ABPS), in Nagpur.

The ABPS elects or renominates new executives and office-bearers. The RSS chief remains in office till the time he decides to relinquish office and name a successor. Developments in Nagpur will be keenly watched not just for the road map RSS lays for its organs as the incumbent Sarsanghchalak  completes 15 years in office and turns 75.

In the opposition ranks, the Congress has already announced it will use the next 12 months to rejuvenate the party organisationally and pump in fresh blood at all levels. Top organisational positions in the party are already with Rahul Gandhi's aides. The challenge is to consolidate the party's position in states and develop provincial leadership that can win elections, especially in a direct contest with the BJP.

The grand old party has announced plans to take the battle to the BJP's pocket borough by holding a session in Gujarat next year. As it continues with a strident social justice agenda, will it succeed in expanding its footprint among the 80% population it has set out to target?

Congress' leadership of the I.N.D.I.A. bloc has come into question after a spate of defeats in assembly polls. To emerge as numero uno in the opposition ranks, it will have to start winning elections against the BJP. Else, regional leaders like Trinamool will continue to assert.

Rahul's own performance as the leader of the opposition will come under scrutiny. He will be judged not just for his parliamentary interventions but his ability to take allies along and devise a political programme for the party.  

2025 will see two state elections — Delhi followed by Bihar. The BJP has not had a CM in Delhi in 25 years. But the battle for the national capital is more about challenging the AAP and its chief Arvind Kejriwal, the two-time CM of Delhi who quit office after getting bail in the alleged excise policy scam.

Delhi CM has limited powers. But the politics in the national capital has larger reverberations. Gloves are already off for the 70 assembly segments that go to the poll early next year. Kejriwal’s political future hinges on Delhi, the laboratory that gave the AAP a toehold in Punjab as well.

Bihar is the only heartland state where the saffron party has never had a chief minister. Despite being the larger partner in the alliance, it has had to play second fiddle to Nitish Kumar who holds the balance of power with 15% odd votes.

There are rumblings in the Bihar coalition as the BJP tests the waters by keeping the leadership issue simmering even as Lalu Yadav’s RJD waits in the wings, hoping that the Bihar CM executes another somersault and lands in its territory.