Call for UK to refresh Indo-Pacific strategy on eve of Modi visit

London: Ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s highly anticipated visit to the UK to sign off on the Free Trade Agreement (FTA), one of the country’s leading think tanks on Tuesday called for a refresh of Britain’s Indo-Pacific strategy that expands its links with India beyond the trade deal.

The Royal Institute of International Affairs, commonly known as Chatham House, released a research paper entitled ‘Why the Indo-Pacific should be a higher priority for the UK’ which warns against a bilateral-only focus that ignores the wider South Asian region which is not on a similar economic growth trajectory as India.

It also calls for greater trilateral cooperation that involves third countries such as France, Australia and the US to build on the UK’s close ties with New Delhi.

“In South Asia, the UK needs to build on its successful conclusion of a limited trade deal with India to widen the scope of bilateral cooperation in a way that leverages both countries’ broader foreign policy priorities (eg engagement with the US and the Global South),” the London-based think tank's analysis reads.

India and the UK agreed an FTA on May 6 with a target to double trade between the two economies to $120 billion by 2030. The text has been undergoing a process of “legal scrubbing” and is expected to be formally signed during Modi’s meeting with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer scheduled for Thursday.

“The announcement in May 2025 of the UK’s conclusion of a free-trade agreement with India complements efforts to build out the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership that was agreed with New Delhi in 2021," the paper says.

"But given India’s protectionist instincts, any final deal is unlikely to be transformative for the bilateral economic relationship. That is why it is important that the UK government supports other channels that can expand trade and investment linkages, such as the Technology Security Initiative that was launched in 2024,” the Chatham House paper states.

“More broadly, gambling on India’s economy to rise more or less on its own – in the absence of similar progress in neighbouring economies – would be a poor bet,” it adds.

Among its recommendations, the think tank calls on the UK to continue to develop the “critical” political and economic relationship with India, while prioritising wider regional integration and growth rather than just bilateral UK-India ties.

“Expand the UK’s links with India beyond the recently completed (and long-awaited) trade deal (and) pursue trilateral cooperation involving the UK, India and third-country partners such as France, Australia or the US,” it states.

The paper highlights that the Indo-Pacific encompasses the majority of the world’s population, and by some estimates will account for over 50 per cent of global growth in the period to 2050. The term refers to a span of countries between the Indian and Pacific oceans, incorporating South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Pacific countries including Australia, New Zealand and Japan.

“The region is critical for British interests because it encompasses security risks affecting the UK, presents vital long-term economic opportunities, and is vulnerable to climate risks that – if not mitigated – will have a major impact on the world,” it notes.

“Getting its approach to the Indo-Pacific right will also help the UK to manage the challenges of a more powerful, assertive and globally influential China. Despite limited capacity to shape Beijing’s actions directly, the UK can influence the neighbourhood in which China resides by working with partners to establish and enforce shared norms, and to support regional countries’ sovereignty and resilience,” it adds.

Among its wider recommendations beyond South Asia, Chatham House experts Chietigj Bajpaee, Olivia O'Sullivan and Ben Bland cover Australia, New Zealand, Japan and South Korea as the “Indo-Pacific Four” where the UK must defend key partnerships from a "volatile" US and build closer ties on trade and economic security.

Southeast Asia is also flagged by the co-authors for presenting “singular opportunities to expand UK trade and investment”.