Dalai Lama reincarnation: Contest over the soul of Tibet

As the 14th Dalai Lama celebrates his 90th birthday on July 6, all eyes are on his expected announcement on his reincarnation. He, himself, stated that the 15th Dalai Lama would be found in the ‘free world’. China, which ‘liberated’ Tibet in 1951 with a military invasion, on the other hand, declared its intention to select the next Dalai Lama through a ‘golden urn’ lottery process.

Beijing hopes to create some confusion among the Tibetans on the issue of the reincarnation of the Dalai Lama. It had done the same in the case of Panchen Lama, the second-highest monk after the Dalai Lama in Tibetan Buddhism. China expects the move will also pave the way for its unbridled influence over Tibet. Earlier, in 1995, when the Dalai Lama recognised Gedhun Choekyi Nyima as the 11th Panchen Lama, China put him under house arrest and, instead, selected Gyaltsen Norbu for the position through a "golden urn" process.

Gyaltsen Norbu today occupies important political positions in communist China. He is a member of the standing committee of China's People's Political Consultative Conference and the vice president of the Buddhist Association of China. He is also seen touring Tibet and meeting political leaders of China.

China, since President Jiang Zemin's time, stated that it will resort to the "golden urn" process in the case of the 15th Dalai Lama as well. Moreover, in August 2020, the Tibet Forum Meeting – one of the highest decision-making bodies in communist China – declared ‘sinicisation’ of Tibetan Buddhism to convert all aspects in Tibet into Han Chinese practices with socialist interpretations, despite the promises of it made in the 1951 17-point agreement for the autonomy of Tibetans.

The Dalai Lama would not like to see Chinese-induced chaos destroying the Tibetan identity and way of life. In 2011, the Dalai Lama transferred his temporal powers to the popularly elected Sikyong (the prime minister). The exiled Tibetans, since then, took part in the elections of the Sikyong thrice, while Tibet under China had never witnessed popular elections.

China's concern is also that, despite its seven decades of tight rule over Tibet since 1951 and assimilation policies, an estimated 97% of Tibetans in Tibet still revere the 14th Dalai Lama. China shudders to think of Tibet slipping from its tight embrace.

Spiritually, the Dalai Lama's declaration on his 90th birthday is expected to be endorsed by the key head monks from Mongolia (the originator of the Dalai Lama institution) and those now living in India, Nepal, Bhutan and other countries.

The Dalai Lama also has significant influence in the United States (which passed the Tibet Policy and Support Act of 2020 and Tibet Reciprocity Act of 2018), the European Union, Japan, Australia and other countries.

Such a contest over the future Dalai Lama has ramifications for not only the Tibetan community but also to the trans-Himalayan belt. With its $19 trillion GDP, China intends to influence the region through infrastructure connectivity and military mobilisation, while the Dalai Lama wants to protect the soul of Tibet and his people.

For India, which had borders with Tibet historically, the Dalai Lama’s succession creates uncertainties along the current borders, as the Galwan clashes in 2020 and the current full-scale border mobilisation indicate. India also has to factor China's 628 dual-use ‘well-off society’ villages in the border areas, as nearly 200 such ‘villages’ were constructed on the path of the Dalai Lama's flight in 1959. Besides, India is also aware of the irredentist Chinese claims on not only Tawang but also the whole of Arunachal Pradesh. India also has to cope with the fragile trans-Himalayan law and order situation.

Despite heavy political and military pressure from China, India has vowed to protect and further the identity of the Tibetans living in India and termed the 14th Dalai Lama as a "spiritual" leader. New Delhi is likely to stick to its position in the case of the 15th Dalai Lama too.

(The writer is a Professor of Chinese Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University)