Erratic weather is hurting Indian firms in the biggest consumer market

Some of India’s largest companies, already hit by a demand slump, are facing a new threat in wooing the country’s 1.4 billion consumers: unpredictable weather.

A cooler-than-usual summer this year — followed by the earliest onset of rain since 2009 — has hurt companies selling everything from talcum powder to air conditioners.

Blue Star Ltd., one of the largest AC sellers in the country, had to cut production by as much as 25 per cent between April and June, as it saw fewer buyers. It also delayed imports of compressors, a key input, and extended credit to some dealerships saddled with unsold inventories. Rivals Havells Ltd. and Tata-owned Voltas Ltd. also flagged a sales slowdown.

“It’s like a wedding was to happen, but the wedding has now been canceled,” said B Thiagarajan, managing director at Blue Star, adding that it was a “painful” time.

A four-fold jump in frequency, unpredictability and intensity of extreme weather events in India over the past four decades has made planning and preparedness more demanding for companies. From Hindustan Unilever Ltd. to food delivery app Zomato-owner Eternal Ltd. to engineering giant Larsen & Tourbro Ltd., it’s affecting everything from sales to labor and supply chain management in the world’s biggest consumer market.

India’s situation as one of the most affected nations by climate change provides a glimpse of what’s in store for other major economies as environmental change accelerates. As record-breaking temperatures, rains and other extreme weather occur worldwide, companies are likely to be left scrambling to predict and plan for the future.

Earnings calls

On earnings calls over the last six months, top management and equity analysts discussed “delayed summer” and “delayed winter” the most in five years, according to transcripts analyzed by Bloomberg News.

“This quarter is slightly challenging as far as the summer portfolio is concerned,” Mohan Goenka, vice chairman of Emami Ltd., whose products include talc powder, told investors on an earnings call last month. The company will try to make up for the setback through its other segments, he added.

Varun Beverages Ltd., which bottles Pepsi in India, had said in April that it was ramping up production for the summer, expecting higher demand. Instead, unseasonal rains likely hurt performance at the beverage maker, according to analysts at Jefferies.

The brokerage also flagged weaker demand at Dabur Ltd., which sells fruit juices, and Tata Consumer Products Ltd., which sells cold drinks.

Time-sensitive summer demand, “once missed, is difficult to recover,” analysts at Nuvama, led by Abneesh Roy, said in a note to clients.

Labor shortage

Rising incidence of heat waves, for example, was among factors causing a shortage of labor at Larsen, even as it split shifts between early morning and late afternoon. Eternal, which operates Zomato and Blinkit, said it faces a seasonal shortage of delivery workers in the summer.

Hindustan Unilever, which sells skincare brands including Ponds and Vaseline, said it saw muted performance in the December quarter partly due to a delayed winter.

India experienced extreme weather events on 88 per cent of days in 2024 in one or more parts of the country, according to a database maintained by Centre for Science and Environment and Down To Earth. Between 1993 and 2022, the South Asian nation lost about $180 billion (Rs 15.57 lakh crore) to severe heat and rains, the Climate Risk Index 2025 report said.

Weather forecasting in India has been plagued by outdated technology and modeling systems that make it difficult to get accurate data.

To bridge this gap, the country launched a new weather model last month to improve its forecasting by doubling the level of detail previously possible. Intended to improve farming and flood management, the model could also help companies as they seek better and more granular data.

“Businesses, while they were aware of the financial impact of weather, simply did not have enough reliable data that could be potentially put to use,” said Samuel John, co-founder and CEO of forecasting firm mistEO.

Forecasting boom

Things have changed in the half-decade since Covid, and weather forecasting has gone mainstream, John added.

Outside of the farm sector, companies from industries such as consumption, quick commerce, logistics, and construction are increasingly approaching Skymet Weather Services Pvt., its chief executive officer Yogesh Patil said. These newer clients, who seek structured, calendar-linked forecasting dashboards, now make up about half of the Reliance Industries Ltd. unit’s revenue.

Zomato has also set up over 750 of its own weather stations across 60 cities to collect detailed data.

As companies navigate the new normal of erratic weather, planning and diversification are key.

Blue Star’s management is confident of recovering a large portion of the lost sales through the rest of the year, by working with more corporate clients where demand largely remains stable. But climate mitigation is becoming an important subject to Thiagarajan, who has worked in air conditioning for four decades.

“Predictability is dropping year after year,” he said. “You can only be prepared for the worst.”