IMD forecasts above-normal rainfall this monsoon

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast above-normal rainfall during the June-September southwest monsoon season, signalling much relief, especially to the agriculture sector.

The seasonal rainfall is expected to be 106% of the long-period average, which corresponds to 870 mm.

The above-normal monsoon will bring cheer to farmers and policy-makers as  52% of the net cultivated area in the country relies on it. Several parts of the country are already reeling under severe heatwaves, with the water levels in 150 major reservoirs dropping to 33% of their capacity.

The monsoon, which usually arrives over the southern tip of Kerala around June 1 and retreats in mid-September, is expected to total 106% of the long-term average, said M Ravichandran, secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences.

Parts of northwest, east and northeast India are expected to receive below-normal rainfall during the season, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of the IMD, said during a press conference. 

However, models have not given any “clear signal” about monsoon rainfall for several parts of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal, which form the core monsoon zone of the country.

“Moderate El Nino conditions are prevailing at present. It is predicted to turn neutral by the time the monsoon season commences. Thereafter, models suggest La Lina conditions may set in by August-September,” Mohapatra said. Positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions, which are favourable for the Indian monsoon, are predicted during the season. Also, the snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere and Eurasia is low. Therefore, all the conditions are conducive, he said.

Highlights - Weather relief
Met agency forecasts favourable La Nina conditions
Rainfall pegged at 106% of the long-period average 
52% of the country's net cultivated area relies on monsoon rain
Below-normal rainfall predicted for parts of northwest, east and northeast India
No 'clear signal' for Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, UP, MP and West Bengal